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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Judging Tower Semiconductor ($TSEM) by how advanced its chip process is misses what its chips are for. Skeptics often set Tower's older 65 nm process against the more advanced processes at TSMC ($TSM). That yardstick suits logic chips, which are judged on transistor density. It does not suit the analog chips Tower makes for optics. 1. In an optical engine, the analog front-end is the circuitry that drives the laser and reads the returning light. It needs speed, linearity and power efficiency, not maximum transistor density. 2. Tower's strength is its silicon-germanium BiCMOS processes. They have long dominated the merchant market for these laser-driver and receiver chips because they deliver high performance without the most advanced CMOS logic. 3. A less noticed strength is hybrid bonding. Co-packaged optics needs an electronic chip bonded reliably onto a photonic one. Tower already runs mature, high-yield hybrid bonding for stacked image sensors in high-end phones, where a signal-processing chip is bonded onto a light-sensing chip. A close technical parallel, already at volume. The limit: if the electronic chip has to take on more complex signal processing, such as clock recovery or adaptive equalization, TSMC's advanced FinFET processes do offer real advantages in power and integration. Different foundries may end up making different parts of the system. So Tower's position in optics rests on silicon-germanium and photonic process expertise, not on advanced logic.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies. Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

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