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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I found the technical discussion helpful, but investor messaging to be way too conservative. If you look at how $NVDA CEO describes CPO, Jensen states scale up is increasing optical volumes by 15x. $LITE and $COHR are quantifying that by describing $5-$20B agreements spanning 3-5 years out. Having this question, and not talking about Ayar, O-Net, Poet, or ELS partnerships. Then redirecting the question to near term pluggables seems off. The vision also needs work, “communications and sensing” semi company is very unexciting. It’s technically true, but there’s no vision being communicated on being the next $40B optical giant or what Sivers is going to be in the next 5 years that would attract long term holders. The core valuation Sivers gets is from optical opportunities, I also personally disagree that it’s helpful to loop back to former cellular relationships when talking about future $GFS volumes I disagree when you portray the company as “small” when Sivers 100m CW DFB capacity is coming online, alongside large foundry partners. Which is a material % of the world’s annual laser capacity. Investors want to hear about future economic opportunities and how you fill the gap with more qualifications during a bottleneck. Sivers has a tremendous opportunity for CPO/NPO/Pluggables but I’m afraid it’s not being communicated properly. It’s understandable here since EETimes is more technical oriented, but I hope this messaging gets communicated better in the next earnings call.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Here’s how I’d position for growth with sticky inflation, U.S. stocks close to their most expensive since 1881, and AI spending that’s turning to debt: → Less in U.S. index funds: If the CAPE’s history holds, U.S. stocks will return less over the next 10 years than the S&P 500’s 7.1%/year average after inflation since 1871. That doesn’t mean you should stop dollar-cost averaging into your retirement accounts or sell what you own, but there are better risk/reward opportunities than an index this concentrated in U.S. large-cap tech. → Value stocks, emerging markets and real assets: Charles Gave favors all three in an inflationary boom. Growth × Policy favors emerging markets and real estate in its current phase, and value stocks, emerging markets and commodities if the real rate rises above 1% (it’s ~0.8% now, and headed above 1% if the Fed hikes again in December). According to Barclays, whose CAPE for U.S. stocks is 39x, the UK (18x) and China (14x) trade at less than half that. → TIPS over nominal Treasuries: In October, 10-year TIPS yielded 2.78% above inflation on average and nominal 10-year Treasuries yielded 5.13%, so TIPS come out ahead over the next 10 years if CPI inflation averages more than 2.35%/year (5.13% minus 2.78%). CPI inflation was 3.7% over the 12 months to September, so inflation would have to slow well below today’s pace for nominal Treasuries to win. → Gold over nominal Treasuries: Gave favors gold over bonds for as long as the gold/IEF ratio stays above its 7-year average. It’s 61% above it now, so gold would have to lose ~38% against $IEF to flip that reading. → More cash than risk-on alone suggests: Risk-on underweights cash, but with the S&P 500/WTI ratio swinging with every Iran headline, I’d keep more, since Gave’s inflationary bust favors cash and energy and avoids long-duration stocks and bonds. In short, I’d own less U.S. large-cap tech, more of what an inflationary boom favors, and enough cash to act if Gave’s reading flips to a bust.

Investor Letters

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LULU · long

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