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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 13 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

There’s a massive AI-driven puke underway, cascading into L/S unwinds and exacerbating the selling pressure across the market. Inevitably, some non-AI names are getting caught in the crossfire and selling off for reasons entirely divorced from fundamentals. The opportunity is finding stocks with idiosyncratic catalysts that can force a re-rating toward intrinsic value, independent of broader market sentiment. A few that come to mind: $FLEX — Axiom spin $KBR — Trinzic spin $CODI — Asset sales $VOYA — Activism What else looks massively dislocated with a tangible catalyst to close the valuation gap?..
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root's $ROOT annualized premium run rate (premiums in force) fell 5.4% y/y in Q3, nearly double Q2's 2.8% drop, as larger carriers cut prices and Root gave up direct-to-consumer growth to protect returns. Policy growth offset the lower premium per policy in Q1, but policies in force were flat from June at 484k (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% y/y, to $1,441. $ROOT's gross accident period loss ratio (losses from crashes in the quarter over premium earned) rose 4.6 points y/y, to 61.1%, but only 1.6 points from Q3 2025's first estimate of 59.5%, which $ROOT has since revised down to 56.5%. The 10-Q blames (1) higher repair and medical costs per claim, (2) more frequent claims, and (3) a shift in channel mix, so claims costs are rising while premium per policy falls, though 61.1% is still inside $ROOT's 60-65% target range. The net combined ratio (losses plus expenses over premium; under 100% is an underwriting profit) improved 4.9 points y/y, to 97.2%, but ~4.2 points of that is Carvana warrant expense falling $15.3M after a one-time catch-up in Q3 2025, so the underlying gain was under a point. $ROOT's Q3 letter to shareholders says it repurchased $36.2M of stock "during the third quarter," but the 10-Q shows $15.5M in Q3, down from over $20M in Q2; the $36.2M is the total since the May authorization, with $38.8M left as of September 30. $ROOT also began deploying its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its largest improvement in predictive power to date, and which it says lets it cut rates for better drivers while keeping its target returns. At ~$56/share, $ROOT trades at ~2.6x its $327.0M book value as of September 30, the low end of the $55-80 base case in my August 10 update, on a Q3 annualized ROE of ~18%, the low end of that case's 18-22%. So I read Q3 as $ROOT playing the soft market the way I expected, holding its margins and shrinking rather than buying growth, which keeps the stock priced as if it never grows again. What I'd want to see from here: 1) Policies: Whether policies in force grow from the flat 484k once the new pricing model reaches more of the book. 2) Partnerships: Whether new business through partners and independent agents, up 19% y/y in Q3 and now 52% of the total, keeps growing. 3) Loss ratio: Whether 2026's first estimates come down a year later, like Q1-Q3 2025 did.

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192M
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $151M
Naples Investor 2 clicks

Initiation Report

Nine Mile Metals is initiated under research coverage.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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