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Friday, November 6, 2026

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 17 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL 2 clicks

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Fantastic quarter from $ALTO - massive beat. 45Z credits continue to expand. Columbia now at $0.30 / gallon! Looks like a run rate of >$7M a quarter now. Management confirmed they expect exports to Europe to resume in 2027 - a large reason being the depreciation of the Brazilian Real post Brazilian elections... ALTO Adjusted EBITDA was pretty stunning. Despite lower crush margins they essentially matched Q3 2026. They can now produce profitable quarters, quarter after quarter, even if crush margins are low. The company paid off another $6.5M in debt and has now paid off $26.5M YTD on a loan that has a 10% interest rate. Sounds like Pekin will be at either a $0.30 or $0.40 / gallon run-rate in 2027 as they have also been able to partner with farmers to purchase low carbon corn. Some of these additional profits will be shared with the farmer. Sounds like we'll also get an update soon on Pekin CO2 monetization opportunities to get the 45Q utilization credit on currently vented CO2 from the wet mills. Columbia is also having the extra CO2 storage tank installed in Q4. Management has yet to guide the additional millions the Columbia plant will earn in 2027 due to this - would expect an update on the next call. Fantastic earnings, fantastic call... stock should be much higher. Management additionally confirmed that zero shares were sold using the ATM and that it wasn't contemplated at all even when the shares were in the $5-$6 range and certainly not now. This should be of zero concern at these levels.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Energy Fuels' $UUUU made $54.86 of gross profit on each pound of uranium it sold in Q3, nearly 3x the $19.16 of a year ago, as its realized price rose to $88.90/lb and its cost fell to $34.04/lb. Grade at its Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona recovered to 1.04% from Q2's 0.71%, as management expected, but $UUUU mined just 385k pounds in Q3, so its unchanged 2.0-2.5M guide needs 875k-1.375M mined in Q4, more than double Q3's pace. Heavy rare earth prices jumped in Q3, with European dysprosium oxide up 150% to $3,500/kg and terbium oxide up 42% to $6,745/kg ($8,250 as of October 30), the two oxides $UUUU's ~$104M heavy rare earth circuit is being built to make from as early as Q1 2028. At October 30 prices, a full year at that circuit's capacity, up to 21 tonnes of terbium oxide and 122 of dysprosium oxide, would sell for ~$600M, if prices hold and the Donald Project, an Australian mineral sands mine it's earning into, gets built to supply the feed. The net loss tripled to $52.4M, but $28.0M of it was other loss, mostly mark-to-market losses on its securities portfolio, and $9.0M was deal costs. $UUUU sold no stock through its at-the-market (ATM) program in Q3, but buying VAC, the German magnet maker it agreed to acquire in June, still takes ~$718M of cash at a close expected as soon as Q1 2027. That cash would turn ~$156M of net cash ($856M of cash and securities less the $700M convertible) into ~$560M of net debt, unless $UUUU sells more stock first. At ~$7.18/share, $UUUU is a ~$1.90B company, below the $8-10 bear case in my June deep dive and below the $2.0-2.5B I put on just the uranium business plus net cash in my August 10 update. So I read $7.18 as the market pricing the VAC cash call and more ATM sales, not the uranium margins or the rare earth prices, which both moved $UUUU's way in Q3. Some questions on my mind: 1) Funding: How much of the new $500M ATM $UUUU sells below $8, and whether the $725M government loan finalizes first. 2) Mining: Whether Q4 mined pounds reach the 875k-1.375M that the 2.0-2.5M guide needs. 3) Donald: Whether the Donald Project reaches a final investment decision by year-end, since its monazite sand is the feed the heavy rare earth circuit is sized for.

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GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Research Note

Nine Mile Metals is the subject of a research note.

VMSXF $14M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

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