Post Q3 EVC Update
EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.
EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
My team has the stones to tell me "the deck we prepared on $PLNT is the best work we've EVER done." I rarely hear that degree of confidence from anyone. You be the judge...presentation TOMORROW, 8/16. Deets below.
The work we're doing on $PLNT is next-level -- similar to what we did on $FND, but with a VERY different conclusion. Analyzing each store from a property developers perspective... Black Book on Friday...
Is anybody looking at $REAL NOLs? I bet $EBAY is. EBAY has failed in luxury authentication. It NEEDS REAL. They could use $2/share in realized NOLs with the stock trading at $3. Maybe they buy this when it's a $10 stock, but at $3 it's a slam dunk.
$REAL CEO gets an A+ for executing on the model. But a D- for communicating on last night's call. The reality is that supply growth -- THE KEY to GMV/Cash Flow -- is ACCELERATING. Stock getting tagged today in a Quad4 tape on a sloppy guide. But this story 100% on track.
Our call has been to be Short Retail, and Long 'boring' retailers -- things like $BBWI, $GIL, $VVV, $DRVN. Revenue inflecting positive on all three, stocks should grind higher through 2H, while the rest of retail melts down.
Best Idea Short $FND should literally be down 20% on this print alone. Across the board guide-down and cutting unit growth AGAIN. Winners don't cut unit growth when times are tough, they LEAN-IN and accelerate investment. But in FND's case it's about cash preservation. Bulls are having major thesis drift here.
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