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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Ambarella $AMBA trades below my bear case, and below where it was before the Financial Times reported takeover talks. In my September 9 update on the edge AI chipmaker, my bear case was $72/share, 16.8% above its $61.67 close on November 2, and my base case $99, 60.5% above. Even the $57 case, where the multiple keeps compressing, is just 7.6% below. $AMBA is down 10.4% since that update, less than the 13.4% drop in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX). Neither $AMBA nor NXP Semiconductors $NXPI, the Dutch auto chipmaker, has confirmed the takeover talks the Financial Times reported on July 31. But on October 30, traders citing a Betaville alert said $AMBA’s board had picked $NXPI for exclusive talks after weighing multiple offers. At $61.67, $AMBA trades below its $74.09 close before the FT report, so the stock isn’t pricing in much of a deal, and a bid would be upside none of my cases counts. The company carries no debt and has $272.3M of cash and securities as of July 31, against ~$18M/quarter of FCF burn in the first half of FY2027. That’s more than three years of runway, so it’s unlikely to need to sell stock. The dilution comes from stock comp instead, which ran at 21.9% of revenue over the last 12 months (too high for my liking) and lifted the share count 3.4% in a year. Memory shortages at its camera customers are the risk to Q4, and the Q3 report, which $AMBA hasn’t scheduled yet, will show whether customers are cutting orders.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

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