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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Ahead of 5 Nov, we are watching whether $IREN’s project delivery is reducing cash burn and whether further expansion has suitable funding in place. Longer debt maturities give IREN more time to complete projects and collect cash, reducing the urgency of returning to lenders during an unfavorable market. Its Microsoft GPU financing is closely matched to the associated contract and sits in a separate vehicle with limited recourse to the parent. We want that time used to establish operating cash generation that can support future investment and eventual debt repayment. At depressed valuations, our view is that IREN could provide a partial hedge against slower AI progress. If slower demand growth leads the largest cloud buyers to moderate construction, IREN could gain better access to GPUs and power for projects already sold. Earlier completion would start revenue sooner, and fewer new commitments would reduce the cash absorbed by construction, bringing positive free cash flow forward. This depends on existing contracts remaining sound. A collapse in customer demand or credit quality would, of course, hurt IREN.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Fuel Tech's $FTEK new CEO used his first earnings release to make acquisitions part of the plan, with $27.8M of cash and investments against a $44M market cap. Ramesh Nuggihalli, a former COO of competitor CECO Environmental $CECO, took over the power plant pollution-control company in August. He's pursuing organic growth in core markets, data center power, and water treatment, plus "select M&A" to add products and sales channels. Its cash and investments come to $0.89/share, ~63% of the $1.42 stock price. So I read the new plan as a choice for the cash: (1) Either it stays the floor under the stock, or (2) it becomes the budget for deals. Q3 revenue rose 16% to $8.7M, and the $267K net loss was its smallest this year (vs. a $303K profit a year ago). But air pollution control (APC) gross margin fell to 40% from 47% a year ago on project mix. APC backlog reached ~$20M with October's $3.3M of awards, but none of this year's awards is a data center order. Q3 also had the year's biggest drop in cash and investments, $1.8M, but receivables rose ~$2.0M as APC projects ramped, so the drop is mostly money customers owe, not money lost. At $1.42/share, $FTEK trades ~19% above its $1.19/share book value and below the $1.72-2.17 sum-of-the-parts in my August 27 deep dive. Would you rather $FTEK spend its cash on a deal or keep it as the floor? I'd rather hear three answers on the November 4 call before giving the new plan credit: 1) M&A: How much of the $27.8M the board would spend, and whether it would pay in cash or in stock trading near book value. 2) Data center: Whether the August talks with a data center customer about paying to reserve $FTEK's capacity are still going. 3) Margins: Whether the ~$20M backlog carries the 40% APC margin from Q3 or the 47% from a year ago.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The 13% puke today is the market questioning whether $CVI is using peak-cycle earnings to justify a transformative acquisition (nearly doubling nameplate capacity). The $MPC assets may be attractive, but shareholders are absorbing dilution, additional debt, and the risk that refining margins normalize before the company can meaningfully delever… $CVI was always sub-scale, so there’s a legitimate strategic rationale here. The irony is that the best time to buy cyclical assets is usually when you can least afford to finance them…

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

MDA $4.2B
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Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

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CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

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Value Investors Club 5 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

ADT $7.2B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

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