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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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@HaydenCapital 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Loved this interview with Adam at Applovin $APP. Insight into his strategic thinking + the story of building a $100BN firm with almost 0 funding (just $4M total). And his decision of buying back ~25% of shares at rock-bottom prices, contributing to their massive stock performance since 2023. https://t.co/2We2q8sG8n ** My favorite quotes: "We went public in April 21. And if I remember right, by December lockups free from January 22 to December 22, I think our stock went down like 92%. Um, it was red every day. And so that it ends up setting you up for failure. Now we were really fortunate because of how we started. We were always cashflow positive. So I controlled our own destiny. We were generating, I think it was a billion dollars of EBITDA. And at the low point, I think we got to a market cap of $4 billion. And so if you think about like cash yield return, it's over 20%. It's really cheap. You could manage and buy out a company at that level with just debt. And so what we did at the low point was we buckled down, said, we've all been here a long time. Let's build really great products. That's how we're going to recover. no one's going to buy our stock at this point. There's no narrative to sell. Everyone's gone. So let's buy our own shares. And we ended up issuing a lot of stock to the team, putting in a performance equity plan, and then becoming the biggest buyer of our own shares over the next year. And so we went from bottom $9 to peak $522 years later. A large part of that, I would say, probably 20-25% of that appreciation was because we bought back 20-25% of the cap table at very low prices because we could." ** And he refuses to speak to the Pods: "And then you realize I also want to recruit investors who believe in what I'm building over time, not who are betting on the stock for a quarter. And so I ended up changing investor relations and I don't take meetings with anyone who's who's focused on what's happening next quarter in a business as robust as ours. What's happening next quarter is defined by things we did a year ago. What's happening in three to five years is what I'm focused on. And so I only spend time with people who want to align with my vision long term. And that creates a much more engaging perspective on the world and got me to start thinking about the business exactly the same way as I did when we were private. And I still operate it today that way."
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

More 3PL Datapoints. $1519.HK $SE 1) External funding raised by 3PLs 2) Lower volumes are leading to negative spiral for delivery workers (who are paid per package). Fewer deliveries per worker = less $ per day = workers leaving for growing 3PLs (Shopee Express & J&T) = more supply / competition of delivery workers = cheaper per parcel costs for SPX & J&T (widening moat). And further erosion of network density for sub-scale 3PLs. https://t.co/n35vONTb7Y
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

It has to consolidate at some point, and already is this year. It's relatively easier to build vs ice cars (esp in China with robust supplier ecosystem). But hard to scale, differentiate, and distribute your products. Requires billions in funding. Btw, you see $LI making a bigger push overseas this year, because they're about to launch BEV in China. So these hybrid models are going abroad to countries with less developed charging networks, where hybrids are more practical. It's a way to keep production lines busy, and might even make higher margins due to lower competition abroad + higher prices.

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Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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