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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

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Fajasy on X

Newbury Street II $NTWO, the SPAC taking robot-safety maker FORT Robotics public, just lost 82% of the cash in its trust to redemptions at its October 28 extension vote, before the merger filing (S-4) is even public! Holders of 14.2M of its 17.25M public shares cashed out at $10.85/share, or $154.3M, leaving 3.05M shares and ~$33M in the trust. The vote also pushed $NTWO's deadline to close the FORT merger from November 4 to February 4, 2027. $NTWO's PIPE (a private placement that funds at the merger close) is now bigger than the trust, at $41.25M after Tiger Global, a FORT investor since 2022, added $10M on October 21. Tiger is also leading a ~$10M round with Mark Cuban Companies that goes straight into FORT, outside the SPAC. On today's commitments, the trust and the PIPE add up to ~$74M at most before fees, vs. the $200.8M of trust and PIPE money the August 2026 investor deck assumed with no redemptions. PIPE investors can also meet their commitments by not redeeming shares they already hold, so cash at close could come in below ~$74M even with no more redemptions. In my September 16 deep dive, I called this vote's redemption rate the first read on how much of the trust reaches FORT, and the trust is down from $185.1M (as of June 30) to ~$33M. So I read the deal as turning into a private round with a Nasdaq listing attached, since the PIPE now brings in most of the cash. PIPE investors get in at ~$7/share once the free shares from the SPAC's sponsor and FORT are counted, vs. $10.85 for the holders who just redeemed. How much of the ~$33M do you think is still there after the merger vote? I'd rather see three numbers in the S-4 before the merger vote: 1) Revenue: FORT's audited 2025 revenue and its 2026 revenue through at least Q2. 2) New money: How much of the $41.25M PIPE is fresh cash rather than shares already in the trust. 3) Fees: How much of the deck's $19.0M of deal costs remains, against ~$74M of cash at most.

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

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