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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$RBLX no victory laps I gave up my short a long time ago. Felt the stock was manipulated by insiders to gas monetization and trends with smash and grab tactics like grow a garden drops, etc. That policy that drove the stock higher is also their undoing as the comp trends reverse and monetization declines. But the real undoing here is that he company, and I solely would call out the CEO who has majority voting power, that it is their lack of seriousness around safety that is undoing their platform and could ultimately completely unravel their business. Most parents I talk to won't let their kids play on Roblox even if they had in in years past. They are more comfortable giving them a switch to fulfill any gaming time because of the lack of safety concerns. David had a concept and it took off, got scale, built a genuine niche marketplace and network and he continues to squander that opportunity with poor operating efficiency (see costs), awful capital allocation, and some of the worst governance of any company over a $1B I have seen by dismissing the open problems on his platform, then only after issues are very public making half attempts to put in safety controls like age verification that he touts on Bloomberg interviews the day of. Its a shame the CEO has voting control, because if you could remove him their could be potential here at current prices based of the network, cash flow and the ability to dramatically improve monetization with advertising and brand partnerships over time. But you would need a big public campaign directed at parents on Bloomberg that the company is serious on safety and protections and will clean up their user account issues, and get serious on capital allocation (one buying shares to cover dilution regardless of share price is garbage policy - have conviction, buy when its attractive, and stay out when its not). @BillAckman said he was psychologically short after he walked from Herbalife, not the same as making money alongside your conviction but the best shorts are often complicated to fully execute on. But few public companies that feel more satisfaction in going down then Roblox due to their management team and disregard for their users safety

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New Ideas From The Road

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AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

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Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

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update on Gartner

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IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

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Doomberg 8 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

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