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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

In our view, distributors may have accumulated inventory because they expected shortages, and that inventory could add supply and pressure memory prices, though we have not verified the reports. Disk use in one of our agent environments has been heavy. That is evidence of storage demand. It tells us little about how much DRAM or HBM the models need while running. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. Reports of large distributor inventories, which we have not verified, raise another risk: distributors could sell down stock accumulated in anticipation of shortages, adding supply and putting further pressure on prices. We hold $LRCX for manufacturing equipment, $RMBS for memory interfaces, and $SNDK for storage and high-bandwidth flash. These give us several ways to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.
@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Monroe $MNRO is selling off on a weak Q2, down around 9% premarket. I think most of the market is reading the headline and missing what's buried in the new credit agreement. The Oct 23 refinancing with Ares ($250M term loan + $125M revolver, EX-10.23) runs well over 100 pages. Deep in the definitions is a "Permitted Change of Control" clause, and it's very specific: - One sale to a private-equity sponsor can happen without triggering a default - It must happen by Oct 23, 2027, a 12-month window - The sponsor needs $1.5B+ AUM, can't be on a disqualified-firm list that Ares and Monro pre-agreed, and must be in an approved jurisdiction - Pro forma lease-adjusted leverage must be 5.50x or less - Sponsor equity must be at least equal to all funded debt, including finance leases - Lenders get a 0.50% fee, and the sponsor can add back up to $2M/yr of management fees Lenders don't negotiate a provision this detailed (a named AUM floor, a pre-agreed blacklist, a fixed window) for a scenario nobody is considering. Meanwhile the board's strategic review, which includes a possible sale, has been open since May. None of this means a deal is coming. No transaction has been announced, and the same agreement also restricts the dividend and adds real interest cost. But headline-driven selling is pricing Monro as a standalone story. The credit agreement says the lenders are planning for a sale to PE and that deal is close.
@convequity

Convequity on X

At $INTC's earnings, we will listen for evidence that Intel can manufacture outside customers' chips at acceptable yields, in volume and on schedule, not for the quarter's numbers. Our view is that Intel's investment case increasingly depends on turning manufacturing progress into a credible foundry business. Technology alone is not enough; customers also need design tools, proven chip IP and engineering support to get chips into production reliably. Intel's history of manufacturing mainly for itself makes that harder. Its design rules and processes were built around internal teams, and moving a chip from one foundry to another is costly and time-consuming. That is why the 12nm partnership with $UMC is critical. UMC brings experience serving external customers and is helping develop a more customer-friendly process design kit, the rules and models engineers use to design chips for the process. What would strengthen our confidence: signs that outside customers can design to that process, and that the work is turning into customer wins.

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Mammoth Energy: Fly Like An Eagle

Mammoth Energy's aviation unit derives 85% of revenue from engine and APU leases, earning 18% yields while Surf Air's going concern warning…

TUSK $151M
Naples Investor 2 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

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