Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Back to the front page

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@david_katunaric 1 click

Mikro Kap David on X

Q3 absolutely sucked, and my performance currently stands at 37.8% YTD versus 65.8% at the end of Q2, marking the worst drawdown from a high since I started sharing my buy/sell decisions on Substack. Apparently, the Market Gods decided this is what you get for calling your last portfolio update “Half-time Lead.” …I’m just glad I didn’t use a Buffett quote. That might’ve finished me off. While I barely felt the pre-2024 election volatility, the spring 2025 tariff scare, or the start of the Iran war in 2026, Q3 broke that pattern. $EVC, my largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs and made sure I felt this one. The portfolio’s relative resilience, something I’d come to appreciate, disappeared with it. Of course, I have plenty to say about Entravision, but I’ll save the fundamental developments for later in the article. Q3 was a season of portfolio pruning (wow, I never thought I’d use that phrase). I exited two winners, realized one loss, added to a large position, saw a rare billion-dollar-plus company find its way into my portfolio, and ended the quarter with 6% in cash versus 0% at the end of Q2. I ended Q3 with 11 holdings, with the top three accounting for 53% of capital and the top five for 70%. Portfolio beta also came down from 0.95 at the end of Q2 to 0.80 at quarter end. That is still elevated relative to the portfolio’s historical level, largely because my biggest position carries a beta of 1.68, while every other holding sits below 1. I’ll save the longer performance review for year end, when we can hopefully put what I still consider a satisfactory 2026 into proper perspective. For now, I think it’s better to focus on what actually matters for a concentrated stock picker like me: what has changed fundamentally, how those developments affect the risk/reward, and where my conviction stands today. As usual, at the link below I went through the portfolio from the smallest position to the largest.
@convequity

Convequity on X

A bit of surpsied to see OpenAI Dot's VM spec is so low: CPU: 9 visible logical CPUs; host reports AMD EPYC 9V74 at ~2.6 GHz RAM: 9.7 GiB total, ~8.7 GiB available; no swap Storage: 32 GiB workspace filesystem, ~30 GiB free Also uses Cloudflare $NET network as egress like Grok Bot does but the computer spec is so much lower than Grok Bot. Maybe OpenAI is just more resource constrained vs. SpaceX given a much bigger user base. The demand for traditional compute, networking and storage will grow crazy as more people start to adopt this cloud agent architecture.

Investor Letters

All letters

Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $17B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 74 of 277

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.