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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

Curtiss-Wright $CW is BWX Technologies’ $BWXT closest comp, and $BWXT trades below it on every measure but FCF yield. Since naval propulsion is close to half of $BWXT’s revenue, its closest comps are other Navy suppliers. Small-reactor developers like Oklo $OKLO and NuScale $SMR wouldn’t work anyway, as they lost $73.2M and $64.0M from operations in Q2 2026, leaving no EBITDA multiple to compare against. So I decided to compare $BWXT with four listed companies building or equipping the same Navy submarines and carriers: → Curtiss-Wright $CW: Pumps, valves, and turbines for the same submarines and carriers, plus reactor coolant pumps for Westinghouse’s AP1000. → Leonardo DRS $DRS: Naval power and propulsion systems, including electric drive equipment for the Columbia-class. → General Dynamics $GD: Builds the submarines through its Electric Boat unit. → Huntington Ingalls $HII: Builds the carriers and submarines at its Newport News shipyard. Here’s how they compare on 2026 estimates (P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/sales, FCF yield): → $BWXT: 30.7x, 22.5x, 3.95x, 2.64% → $CW: 36.3x, 24.8x, 5.54x, 2.90% → $DRS: 26.9x, 18.4x, 2.48x, 2.78% → $GD: 19.7x, 13.9x, 1.68x, 5.34% → $HII: n/a, 12.3x, 0.98x, 5.28% Note: CW’s, GD’s, and HII’s EBITDA is operating income plus D&A from company guidance, since they don’t guide EBITDA. $BWXT trades above the two shipbuilders, which earn thinner margins. HII guides shipbuilding operating margins of 6.0-6.5% and GD 10.5% overall, vs. $BWXT’s 12.6% GAAP operating margin in 2025. A reasonable EV/EBITDA range for $BWXT is 16-24x, between its own end-2023 multiple and Curtiss-Wright’s today.
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

$PNG.V: Kraken is the subsystem prime for AUVs, batteries, sonar and navigation (via Covelya/Sonardyne) so it captures $3–5m of content per hull as Anduril and the navies scale up uncrewed fleets $THEON: Theon is NATO’s night-vision franchise, just got into counter drones. Cheap, and growing +20% $MOD — After the October 1 spin, Modine is a pure-play data center cooling company the market still prices like an auto-parts supplier, at roughly 10x FY28E EBITDA versus Vertiv near 40x, while large chillers and air handlers for Google and Amazon grow 60%+ $TOI.V — Topicus is Constellation’s European vertical-software arm, with 6% recurring organic growth. I think it re-rates once the new CEO puts its €180m+ half-yearly free cash flow back to work on acquisitions.
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

We listened to the $ROL call or just trading semis versus everything else because they Tok down guidance a second straight quarter and the implied growth in Q4 could go negative on residential. Big feline but stock is still expensive for what is an ongoing challenge to lead gen from LLMs but the other factor they didn't refer to is the PE competition. Seems like an opportunity to scale back in short somewhere closer to $25 seems correct incredibly odd to see it up after that call

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $3.6B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

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