TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
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From X
Deep Sail Capital on X
Sobering one: of 31 distinct names, only 2 have actually reached my Realistic Valuation target. $EVTL and $RR. Median downside capture on the Sept '25 list: 73% of the decline I forecast. On the 2026 lists: 22-41%. Direction right. Magnitude still pending. This means there is still lots of meat on the bone in many of these names.
Deep Sail Capital on X
What I'm carrying into the next list: → Short arithmetic, not narratives → Overleveraged and Industry Bubble earn their slot → Potential Fraud has to clear a much higher bar → Stop re-shorting $RUM Full table and methodology at Shorts & Squeeze Corner.
Deep Sail Capital on X
Across all 110 position-instances: Average short return: +25.7%Median: +23.1%Hit rate: 81% — 89 of 110 names fell Best call, and it wasn't close: $EVTL Vertical Aerospace $5.00 → $0.58 Top performer on all five lists. The Sept '25 entry is +88%. Even the July '26 entry is +66%. The company flagged going-concern risk in a filing this month.
Deep Sail Capital on X
The rest of the Sept '25 podium — a full year of holding: $EVTL +88% $SMR +77% $LVWR +76% $OKLO +73% $BTQ +73% $SOUN +69% $RGTI +67% 19 of the 20 names on that list fell. Nineteen.
Deep Sail Capital on X
Biggest miss was $RUM. $RUM was my worst pick on four of five lists. Average: -23%. $PLTR: -13% average across four lists. Right on the multiple, wrong on the stock, repeatedly. $CVNA: -4% average — and I had it tagged Potential Fraud.
SG on X
@BertrandPirel to what do you attribute the substantial availability (1.85m shares) and low borrow cost (3.25%) for $GPRO at IBKR?
BDC on X
Astute observation here. $STLN could not be better situated for the current environment, imo. https://t.co/sy97F9J9YU
Colin King on X
August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point https://t.co/RcptMg3HfE
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds October 2026 AAK $4.7BLFABF $13B
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities 3Q 2026 NET $97B
- Palm Harbour Capital third quarter 2026 ALFLE $117MBOIVF $12B
- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $35BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 LUV $21BQXO $12B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 CLVT $1.4BAAP $2.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.6BCALY $3B
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 BOIVF $12BAVOL $8.2B
Matt Murphy and Michael Hurlston Fireside Chat: Irrational Recap
Marvell and Lumentum’s merger targets uVCSEL scale-in optics, combining Marvell’s DSP and analog IP with Lumentum’s laser manufacturing for…
Educational Development (EDUC) – The Book Value Trap
Educational Development trades at 0.21x tangible book after selling its distribution complex to repay debt, but FY26's $2.3m profit masked…
Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.
Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…
Transocean (RIG): Q3 2026 Earnings
Transocean enters its Valaris merger with 109 of 110 available deepwater rigs contracted and 313 million shares sold short, despite weaker…
Enterprise Products Partners Pulled 2027 Into 2026 - Energy Transfer Didn't
Enterprise Products Partners has pulled growth spending into 2026, while Energy Transfer’s contracted projects offer clearer EBITDA growth…
Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust (NYSE: BXDC)
BXDC trades at a 14% discount to net liquidation value, with $1.9 billion of cash against a $1.6 billion market cap, ahead of data-center…
Veeva Systems: AI Is The Icing, Not The Cake
Veeva Systems' Commercial Solutions returned to 13% subscription growth, while R&D and Quality grew 19.3%, with Falcon AI agents and…
Ignacio Planas Gonzalez 
Marvellous Value Destruction
Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…
ARS Pharmaceuticals: Lawsuits And Cash Burn Are Priced In, Yet The Stock Keeps Falling
ARS Pharmaceuticals’ neffy adoption and insurance hurdles have driven cash burn and a falling share price, while management targets…
Cypriot Invests 
Marvell for Lumentum: a new JDS-Uniphase?
Marvell Technology and Lumentum fell sharply after announcing a historic merger, reviving comparisons with JDS-Uniphase.
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
BioMarin's Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while Alesta charges drove an $82 million operating loss and…
BNTX Earnings Review
BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…
ON Semiconductor Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
Onsemi's Q3 revenue rose 11% to $1.72 billion, driven by 175% AI data-center growth, while automotive revenue fell 1% and net debt dropped…
Marvell And Lumentum Merger Doesn't Make Any Sense To Me
Marvell’s all-stock Lumentum deal exposes LITE holders to MRVL volatility while paying peak-cycle AI multiples, with US and China antitrust…
Dustin Quasney 2 clicks
BSP · short Bending Spoons Spa
Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.
FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two
FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.
Grab: Discount To Uber Makes Little Sense
Grab’s Southeast Asian delivery business nears a profitability inflection point, while consolidation and a potential GoTo deal challenge…
Wavelength Research 2 clicks
DoorDash 3Q’26: Buying the Big Basket
DoorDash’s 3Q orders rose 28% as it announced a $17 billion Instacart acquisition, expanding its grocery basket strategy after buying…
[scuttleslops] RDDT, AI and cybersecurity, AMZN, MU, META, BLDR, RYAN
Reddit’s Google referrals fell by more than 1 million a week as AI search expands, prompting a logged-in-user push to protect ad yield and…
Iron Mountain: The Data-Focused REIT Looking To Climb Ahead After Q3 Results
Iron Mountain’s upgraded Q2 guidance, revenue, EBITDA and AFFO trends support its outlook before Nov.
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