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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

A tape library maker fired its CFO on October 9, 2026, without giving a reason, and its stock is now down 41.3% from its October 2 peak. Within two months, it replaced both of its top finance officers. Yet it still expects to meet or exceed its September-quarter guidance. That company is Quantum $QMCO, which makes tape libraries that companies use to archive data for years. $QMCO has fallen to $20.25/share, down 22.4% since my August update, but still more than double the $9.42 investors paid in its June private placement (PIPE). Worth mentioning that the larger hard drive and flash memory stocks have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 27 close: → SanDisk $SNDK: Down 44.1% to $1,304.84/share. → Seagate $STX: Down 39.0% to $667.85/share. → Western Digital $WDC: Down 49.0% to $380.88/share. So $QMCO fell about as far as the group, but in under four weeks instead of four months, and mostly after the CFO was fired. Besides the firing, three accounting issues hang over $QMCO’s September-quarter 10-Q, due November 9: 1) Material weaknesses: $QMCO’s June-quarter 10-Q still reports material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) in revenue recognition, inventory, and income taxes. 2) Restatements: None of the weaknesses has led to a material misstatement, but $QMCO has restated its financial statements before, in May 2024 and again in August 2025. 3) Late filings: Its June-quarter 10-Q was officially filed on August 11, a day after its 40-day deadline, and its FY2026 10-K needed a notice of late filing in June. Still, tape demand is growing, and no $QMCO insider has sold since my August update: → Tape: Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%. → Industry: The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025. → Supply: By CEO Hugues Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now. → Insiders: No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. $QMCO’s EV is $825.3M, counting its warrants, options, and RSUs. That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak, but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So is $QMCO’s drop a pullback worth buying, or a warning about the numbers? That’s what I answer in my new update on $QMCO, including my bear, base, and bull cases.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

On integrations will see $DOCU but others like sign now. There are dozens of signature solutions from panda, adobe, and many many others. All with cheaper solutions. And to say theres no enterprise features or some sort of ecosystem/marketplace - that does not stand. Apple, Exxon and other major corporations use Sign now. I got a signature sheet from Rivian from box directly (and it's not docusign white labeled). If you're looking for the reversal in software squeeze, DOCU at current pricing and competitive positing in an increasingly Agentic world has to surface as a weak story moving forward that trades at a premium to almost anything else you will look at.

Investor Letters

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Stevanato down 30%. Yikes.

Stevanato fell 30% after forecasting low-single-digit 2027 growth as lower Nexa syringe volumes from a GLP-1 customer offset solid Q3…

STVN $5.4B
Best Anchor Stocks 3 clicks

Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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