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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@stockgutter 1 click

SG on X

I am a skeptic of the current quantum companies but cannot ignore that $IONQ just doubled its cash hoard from $2B to $4B, selling shares/prefunded warrants at $40 (above market) covered 2:1 by warrants with a strike at $69.46. Not a bad move imo. While I agree with critics that the warrants are a bit oppressive, shitcos will have to pay up one way or another to raise $$ in size. There are worse structures. No position in IonQ rn, but considering selling long-dated calls in the 2x inverse ETF $IONZ - I think the underlying will participate strongly in any junk bounce towards year end.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together. There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...). But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed. You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows
@BrokenMoats 4 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Quickly back to very attractive levels to put back on short exposure on the software sector after the manic move in Q3 and digestion in September before the sudden crash up in the past 10 days..... AI wins software is in trouble - faster disruption more competition, pricing pressure AI trade is over, software is going to catch down as the market will tank and this won't sit that out (the are not cheap) Disruption and pricing is the tailwind, now valuation is too. Rates don't hurt either as up until recently these were considered long duration assets Recent results were status quo for most (no real acceleration) and pitch AI cohort growth as growing xx% but its not uplifting the total growth they are just changing what they charge for to show the street what it wants to hear) -- that phase is over, valuations are in many cases at year and multi year highs. SBC still a problem. Now comes renewals in the back of this year and thats where the issues will start to emerge on retention and pricing. An thats day 1 they will snowball overtime for the vast majority of these companies. Plenty of names to choose from: $PAYC $DOCU $TEAM $DDOG $PCTY $GDDY $RNG
@stockgutter 3 clicks

SG on X

I asked @grok to assess how the full results that $MRNA plans to release at ESMO that would strengthen or weaken the impression from top line results announced in August. The results are copied below. Seems reasonable to me at first glance (without having checked any of the data cited) -- anyone have a different view? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Items that could weaken (or further strengthen) the positive view include: - Magnitude of benefit: Hazard ratios (HRs), confidence intervals, absolute risk reductions, and landmark rates (e.g., 1- or 2-year RFS/DMFS). The earlier Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 showed an RFS HR of ~0.51 (~49% relative risk reduction) and a DMFS HR of ~0.41 at 5 years. A substantially weaker Phase 3 effect (for example, HR closer to 0.75–0.85 with modest absolute benefit) could make the result look less compelling given the complexity, cost, and personalized manufacturing of the therapy. A comparable or stronger effect would reinforce the topline. - Statistical robustness and maturity: Width of confidence intervals, exact p-values, number of events, and median follow-up duration. Narrow intervals and a solid number of events support reliability; wide intervals, low event counts, or very short follow-up at the interim analysis could raise questions about reproducibility or durability. Subgroup consistency: Results by stage (IIB/IIC vs. III vs. IV), age, BRAF status, PD-L1 expression, geography, or other factors. Benefit concentrated in higher-risk stages or selected subgroups would narrow the practical population and commercial opportunity relative to a broadly consistent effect. Durability (Kaplan–Meier curves): Early separation that later plateaus or converges would suggest limited long-term impact. Sustained separation would support durability. - Overall survival signal: Any immature OS HR, death counts, or curve separation. An adverse or flat trend (while not decisive this early) could temper enthusiasm pending mature data. - Safety, tolerability, and feasibility details: Grade ≥3 adverse events, serious AEs, immune-related AEs, discontinuations, quality-of-life/patient-reported outcomes, and any manufacturing metrics (production success rate, turnaround time, or treatment delays). Higher toxicity, discontinuations, or practical barriers could offset efficacy gains. The topline noted consistency with prior experience and no new signals, but granular rates matter. - Stronger, consistent, durable efficacy with manageable safety and feasible delivery would solidify the positive assessment, support regulatory filings, and underpin commercial expectations. Marginal magnitude, inconsistency across key subgroups, limited durability, or meaningful safety/feasibility issues would lead to a more cautious view of clinical utility and value, even though the trial formally met its endpoints.

Investor Letters

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Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks

BNTX Earnings Review

BioNTech's Q3 revenue beat consensus on €613 million of BMS partnership revenue, while COVID vaccine sales fell 35% and net cash totaled…

BNTX $22B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
BSP · short

Bending Spoons Spa

Bending Spoons is a software and digital-assets holding company that has completed more than 50 acquisitions since 2013.

BSP $29B
Value Investors Club 1 click

BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt…

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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