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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

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TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $31B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

The rhetoric on X and from Elon leans overwhelmingly apocalyptic on Democrats winning. It's a mini bubble here, but I think people forget AI is bipartisan national security priority, and that $NVDA's historic rally + AI buildout acceleration happened under the Biden admin. Anyone can extrapolate a politician's negative view on AI to doompost indexes or that " $CRWV is going to go down". But in all reality, even with a Democratic governor, we'll likely just see some headwinds to individual developers, and incentives like "clean-energy tax credits" moving to other areas in AI like solar manufacturing. Rather than any market-wide doomsday scenario that the opposing party likes to portray. Even Bitcoin/Ethereum performed better under the negatively perceived regulation of Gary Gensler. Just like any major event, everyone looks at the worst case scenario like helium disruption shutting down Samsung, $TSM, and the memory trade... Then markets move on few weeks later.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

U.S. inflation is still sticky, and it’s not only the government’s numbers saying so. Inflation shows up in both the government’s price indexes and the price of gold: → Growth × Policy: Core PCE inflation, the PCE price index minus food and energy, rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, 1.1% above the Fed’s 2% target. CPI inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. I focus on core PCE because the Fed sets its 2% target on the PCE index, and leaving out food and energy, whose prices swing the most, provides a better read on where inflation is headed. → Charles Gave’s Four Quadrants (from Gavekal): At the end of October, an ounce of gold bought 42.5 shares of $IEF (a 7-10 year Treasury ETF) vs. a 7-year average of 26.3. That’s down from 47 at the end of September, since gold fell 6.9% in October while $IEF rose 3.1%. Gave reads gold beating bonds as the currency losing value, and gold has been beating bonds since March 2020. Gave’s framework still places the U.S. in an inflationary boom, where the U.S. has been since November 2023, apart from four weeks in March and April 2026. That’s the quadrant where he favors gold, commodities, real estate, value stocks, emerging markets and cyclicals with high fixed costs, and avoids long-duration bonds. These assets either rise in price with inflation or earn more when the economy runs hot, while long-duration bonds pay a fixed amount that inflation eats away. High Treasury yields don’t change that call, since Gave’s gold/IEF ratio divides the gold price by $IEF’s total return (interest included), and the ratio is still 61% above its 7-year average even after October.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

GameStop $GME is doing a Magic the Gathering meet up at stores across the board. Wall Street simply does not understand the significance of this as they don't follow nerdass card market and they definitely don't follow Hasbro $HAS and see how much their Magic the Gathering revenues are up. And they most certainly don't understand that GameStop is a card shop now because Wall Street suits are too busy going to the Peter Luger Steak house and ordering overpriced hunks of meat and a nice side of mashed potatoes while their big fat bellies fall over their legs and wives secretly hate them because they are too busy buried in their financial models and not their wives bosoms.

Investor Letters

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Marvellous Value Destruction

Marvell’s proposed Lumentum deal risks alienating Cloudlight customers and losing engineering talent, despite limited optical integration…

LITE $62B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

FTAI Aviation Update, Part Two

FTAI Aviation’s $234 million Jereh JV deposit funds Power inventory, while customer concentration, lower cash guidance and pending U.S.

FTAI $20B
CV's Substack 4 clicks
SE · long

Sea Limited

Sea Limited is pitched as a GARP long, backed by AI tailwinds, founder-led execution and emerging-markets exposure despite competitive and…

SE $45B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $99B
MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

AppLovin: Deep Dive Analysis

AppLovin’s Axon AI matches advertisers with profitable users while MAX auctions app inventory, as investors question whether its…

APP $80B
Hated Moats 1 click

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com dominates China’s online travel market with over 50% share and has grown international platform traffic from 1 million monthly…

TCOM $27B
Asian Century Stocks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (08/21/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Walmart’s soft U.S. comps and rapid delivery, Qiaodan’s challenge to Nike in China, and Suno’s AI-generated…

NKE $57B
TSOH Investment Research

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