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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@Fierce__beast 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

Here's the J-curve stock shape -- many examples of software stocks and high growth stocks, sometimes even large mature companies that release a new product. $MPWR was shaping up for this in November 2024 (I wrote about this and went long) when it dropped a lot after they "lost $NVDA" marketshare, but of course their custom AI accelerator business was growing something like 100% a year, and it was only a matter of time before it showed up in the earnings. It subsequently re-rated after troughing at 35x and had significant earnings growth. Today it goes for 35x again. Will there be another big bump in a few years, maybe robotics?
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

This is the shape of many AI related beneficiaries that I think is the most likely path, a few bumps along the way of course, but more or less the path: $AVGO is an interesting example it has expected EPS growth that looks almost exactly like this, but it doesn't trade for 67.5x, it trades for 20x, which seems to imply that earnings growth rate expectations will pretty dramatically slow down within the next 12-24 months. This doesn't seem likely to me. Of course when I say expected EPS these views are extrapolations of near-term trends and discussions about long-term demand, but all i am making a point about is that if $AVGO's estimates actually materialize roughly like the consensus estimates think, the stock should probably be at least 100% higher.

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $333M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $17B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $4T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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