Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting 32h ago 2 clicks

33h ago MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 1 click

33h ago CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 6 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 19h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$AAPL is a pretty straightforward short here imo. Even ignoring the ridiculous valuation, it's become a flight to safety stock. If we get a proper market crash I can't see it continuing to hold up, meanwhile if we get a recover in the Q's we likely see a rotation out.

@finphysnerd 19h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap 21h ago 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd 23h ago 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@negligible_cap 24h ago 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

Wonder when $META will do the same for Muse. They obviously can sustain it a lot longer than SpaceX but Muse (as Zuck noted on their call) is very expensive Have seen sell side putting around $180 / year cost estimates per user in the free tier. Not cheap https://t.co/j1RqQzdZpZ

@ACapitalLP 24h ago 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP 24h ago 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs 24h ago 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $32BTSCO $17B

D Invests 38h ago 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $92B

Taylor Dart 39h ago 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.

AMZN $2.6T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 31 7 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $83BCOHR $47B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 1 click

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.6T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

Cadence Design Systems Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Cadence Design Systems grew Q3 revenue 22% to $1.633 billion, built an $8.2 billion backlog and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to…

CDNS $94B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 27 3 clicks

Blackstone: Q3 Shows The Private Credit Scare Was Overdone, And The Stock Is Still Cheap

Blackstone’s Q3 brought $1.37 trillion in AUM and $63.3 billion of inflows, with other businesses offsetting real estate weakness as…

BX $91B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 27 2 clicks

WULF · long

Terawulf INC

TeraWulf is shifting from bitcoin mining toward data centers, seeking a higher-quality and more defensive business model.

WULF $6.3B

Value Investors Club Jul 29

Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas…

EQT $34BRRC $13B

Bison Insights Oct 26 7 clicks

The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

IREN $11B

CV's Substack Oct 26 16 clicks

Celestica surges as the AI chip race keeps going

Celestica rose 12% after beating revenue and profit expectations and raising its full-year outlook, as AI chip demand supports contract…

CLS $36B

The Technology Letter Oct 26 1 click

Seagate sells off but the outlook is still very good

Seagate shares fell 8% after earnings offered less upside than prior quarters, but the hard-disk drive maker forecast another strong…

STX $160B

The Technology Letter Oct 26 1 click

Amkor Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amkor's Q3 sales were flat at $1.991 billion as computing and automotive/industrial growth offset a 27% communications decline; Q4 sales…

AMKR $10B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 26 4 clicks

Quick Value #335 - Truist Financial (TFC)

Truist Financial trades at 10.5x earnings and 1.5x tangible book as new CEO Mike Lyons sells non-core assets and targets 16% to 18% ROTCE.

TFC $59B

Value Don't Lie Oct 26 5 clicks

Intuitive Surgical: The Long Road to Everyday Surgery

Intuitive Surgical built da Vinci into a 12,000-system surgical-robotics network performing 10,000 daily procedures, while high-volume…

ISRG $150B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 26 8 clicks

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

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