Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting Nov 1 2 clicks

Nov 1 MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 2 clicks

Nov 1 CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 7 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd Nov 1 1 click

Myles on X

$AAPL is a pretty straightforward short here imo. Even ignoring the ridiculous valuation, it's become a flight to safety stock. If we get a proper market crash I can't see it continuing to hold up, meanwhile if we get a recover in the Q's we likely see a rotation out.

@finphysnerd Nov 1 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap Nov 1 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd Nov 1 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@negligible_cap Nov 1 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

Wonder when $META will do the same for Muse. They obviously can sustain it a lot longer than SpaceX but Muse (as Zuck noted on their call) is very expensive Have seen sell side putting around $180 / year cost estimates per user in the free tier. Not cheap https://t.co/j1RqQzdZpZ

@ACapitalLP Nov 1 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP Nov 1 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs Nov 1 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $33BTSCO $18B

D Invests Nov 1 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $84B

Taylor Dart Nov 1 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.

AMZN $2.6T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 31 7 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $62BCOHR $47B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.6T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $20B

Value Investors Club Jun 11

Brown-Forman: 99 Problems, But Weight-Loss Drugs Ain’t One

Brown-Forman faces declining organic EBIT and uneven ready-to-drink sales, while U.S.

BF-A $14B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Sep 8

Disney: Fairly Valued, Market-Like Returns

Disney grew revenue 7% as buybacks and margins support earnings, but premium valuation, debt, rates, competition and legal risk point to…

DIS $196B

The J Thesis Sep 8

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $12B

Hated Moats Sep 8 7 clicks

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $81BAIG $43B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 18 clicks

Lasers for CPO/NPO: Part 3 – Master Oscillator, Power Amplifier

MOPA lasers combine a roughly 100 mW seed diode with an integrated semiconductor optical amplifier to produce about 400 mW for co-packaged…

LITE $62B

Vik's Newsletter Sep 7

Scholar Rock: Manufacturing Noise Obscures A Muscle-Targeted Franchise

Scholar Rock’s apitegromab could become the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy by September 2026, but manufacturing setbacks and a…

SRRK $5.2B

Equity Eagle Sep 7

UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $134B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 7 5 clicks

The Quality Check #1

The Quality Check #1 reviews recent developments at Arista, Cummins, Veeva, ServiceNow and AppLovin following earnings season.

ANET $231BCMI $71B

Jimmy's Journal Sep 7

lululemon: An 18% Crash Is Not A Buy Signal

Lululemon’s Americas revenue fell 8% and comps dropped 12%, while a $134.5 million tariff refund masked weakening underlying margins after…

LULU $12B

On the Pulse Sep 7 1 click

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

Negligible Capital on X

A Capital on X

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