Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting 40h ago 2 clicks

40h ago MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 1 click

41h ago CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 6 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 26h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$AAPL is a pretty straightforward short here imo. Even ignoring the ridiculous valuation, it's become a flight to safety stock. If we get a proper market crash I can't see it continuing to hold up, meanwhile if we get a recover in the Q's we likely see a rotation out.

@finphysnerd 27h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap 29h ago 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd 30h ago 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@negligible_cap 31h ago 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

Wonder when $META will do the same for Muse. They obviously can sustain it a lot longer than SpaceX but Muse (as Zuck noted on their call) is very expensive Have seen sell side putting around $180 / year cost estimates per user in the free tier. Not cheap https://t.co/j1RqQzdZpZ

@ACapitalLP 31h ago 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP 31h ago 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs 32h ago 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $33BTSCO $18B

D Invests 45h ago 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $84B

Taylor Dart 46h ago 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.

AMZN $2.6T

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Oct 31 7 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $83BCOHR $47B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.6T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CLF · long

Cleveland-cliffs INC

Cleveland-Cliffs is pitched as a long on underappreciated earnings power, with more than 90% return potential over six to nine months.

CLF $8.1B

Value Investors Club Jul 25

From Fat to Follicles - Is Hair Loss the Next Blockbuster?

Novo Nordisk has only floated hair loss, while Veradermics’ Phase 3 oral minoxidil data lead a field of licensing and takeover candidates.

NVO $176BMANE $6B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 20 41 clicks

Is Microsoft Over-Earning on OpenAI?

Microsoft booked $24.1 billion from OpenAI in FY2026, nearly a quarter of Azure revenue, raising questions over finite, high-margin…

MSFT $3.9T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 20 22 clicks

RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Update - Accumulate, Record $340bn Backlog, Zones And Stop Inside

RTX reported 11% sales growth to $25.0 billion, raised 2026 guidance and reached a record $340 billion backlog, while free cash flow fell…

RTX $263B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 20 9 clicks

Heico Corporation

HEICO sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts at 30% to 50% discounts to OEMs, gaining customers as restrictive aftermarket contracts…

HEI $46B

D Invests Oct 20 13 clicks

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Update - Accumulate, Record Backlog, Zones And Stop Inside

Northrop Grumman posted 7% Q3 sales growth to $11.1 billion, lifted profit guidance and reached a record $109.6 billion backlog, led by…

NOC $79B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 20 4 clicks

Disney: Century-Old Franchises at 14x Forward Earnings

Disney trades at 14x FY27 consensus EPS of $7.50 as parks, merchandise and streaming rebuild its franchise flywheel.

DIS $188B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 20 10 clicks

[scuttleslops] AMZN, MTCH, SPOT, Open vs. closed models

Amazon’s fulfillment network and customer-review base limit autonomous AI shopping agents, whose referrals generate under 0.5% of major…

AMZN $2.6T

scuttleblurb Oct 20 11 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXII

CoreWeave and neocloud peers face financing pressure, but sold-out GPU capacity and rising H100 and B200 rental rates support continued AI…

CRWV $34BMYRG $4.3B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 20 8 clicks

Group 1 Automotive: The Debt Stress Test

Group 1 Automotive’s $1.25 billion Atlanta borrowing lifts net corporate debt to about $4.4 billion; a 2009-style downturn leaves it near…

GPI $3.1B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 20 12 clicks

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

Negligible Capital on X

A Capital on X

A Capital on X

Paradis on X

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