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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Looks like Nike $NKE isn't able to just do it anymore. It will need a significant amount of energy and work to regain its place in stores. I remember reading in Phil Knight's Shoe Dog book that his coach Bill Bowerman felt that runners only had a limited number of all-out races in their legs. I think they were referring to the legendary runner Prefontaine who unfortunately died in a car crash late one night in Eugene, Oregon. Incidentally I was in Eugene last year with some friends for a Ducks game and we crossed Pre's rock a few times as we drove up to our Airbnb in the hills above the University of Oregon. I hope Nike has a few more all-out races left in it. Overall I don't feel like the brand is impaired in the eyes of consumers despite their recent preference for On $ONON and Hoka $DECK. Disclosure: I am long $ONON but have been watching $NKE closely.
@convequity 3 clicks

Convequity on X

$META bulls say its ad cash flow lets it undercut the AI labs on price. The Muse Wonder launch shows Meta matching their prices instead. Meta released Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full on Monday and says they score level with Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra on its own tests. Three details from the launch. 1. Wonder costs $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens on Meta's API. TechCrunch puts that in the same price band as GPT-6 Sol and Opus 5.5. Meta is pricing with the labs, not under them. 2. The stronger model, Wonder Full, is not on the API at all. It is only available to Muse Code subscribers. A developer comparing API models is not buying the model Meta uses to claim the frontier. 3. Both models are distributed only through Meta's own API and Muse Code subscriptions, and the launch says nothing about releasing the weights. I read this as Meta adopting the labs' business model rather than attacking it. The frontier model is a subscription product, and the API is priced at the labs' level rather than below it. That weakens one part of the bull case. If Meta is not undercutting, the price pressure on the labs that bulls expected has not arrived with this launch. The question for the results on 21 October is what Muse subscriptions, Muse Code and the API are earning against the spend on the Prometheus data centre that trained these models, not whether Meta can take the labs' customers on price.

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

T $144B
Value Investors Club

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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