Sunday, November 1, 2026

Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook

Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.

CLMT $4.3B

Treasure Hunting Nov 1 2 clicks

Nov 1 MO $130B

Altria: Dutiful

Invariant 2 clicks

Nov 1 CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Portfolio (Oct 2026) - SWI#25 and #26 Adding Exposure to AI.

Sleep Well Investments 6 clicks

From X

@finphysnerd 39h ago 1 click

Myles on X

$GRND has gotten cheap again. Short report concerns have been mostly shrugged off. It's still one of the best businesses in the world and now trading at 24x trailing earnings. Will be adding a bit and buying dips.

@BarbarianCap 41h ago 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

7/n $BSP CEO @luke10ferrari on Joys of Compounding @Buhrman_Rick ⁠@PaulBuser⁠ Sounds like a very thoughtful operator, not that he needs my opinion https://t.co/Xwd1Namvk8

@finphysnerd 42h ago 3 clicks

Myles on X

I think $HONA looks pretty attractive here. Some execution risk, but this is fundamentally a fantastic business that is experiencing short term issues, while experiencing spinoff selling and hedge fund degrossing. I think it's hard to lose too much money here.

@ACapitalLP 43h ago 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

@ACapitalLP 43h ago 1 click

A Capital on X

Why isn’t $GRND asymmetric into the 11/5 print? At $12.65, it’s ~10x ‘27 EBITDA pre-Freddie, alt data shows MAUs reaccelerating, and the call should clarify Freddie’s margin dilution. The Ithaca Holdings take-private of $BMBL and Zage’s $18 bid last year provide interesting valuation reference points… What’s the bear actually leaning on?

@ParadisLabs 43h ago 1 click

Paradis on X

Pretty crazy: $AAPL is now negatively correlated to $QQQ for the first time ever. The market is treating Apple as a safe haven from AI capex. https://t.co/KnzKu2Fpff

@Fierce__beast Nov 1 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

it's hitting tutors, i wonder if it's a matter of time before it hits online education like $PXED where is the edge, what's the point, will higher ed credential matter that much in 5 years? the thesis for $cour and $udmy was that their claimed value of millions of hours of courses was irreplaceable. that thesis is now broken. $SLM now seems interesting, a very low valuation, but is it a short or long?

@junkbondinvest Nov 1 3 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

Crazy chart that puts things into context. US bonds issued by Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle: 2024: <$17bn 2025: $93bn 2026 YTD: $182 BILLION 10 of the 21 largest bond deals ever were done this year. $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META $ORCL https://t.co/PCO7m8heFi

Portfolio Update October 2026

Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…

TGOPF $33BTSCO $18B

D Invests Nov 1 3 clicks

Agnico Eagle: Soaring Above The Peer Group

Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…

AEM $84B

Taylor Dart Nov 1 3 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…

LITE $83BCOHR $47B

P Equity Research Oct 31 1 click

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

SoFi Technologies: Nobody Saw This Coming

SoFi raised its 2026 guidance after a blowout Q3 and issued a strong 2027 outlook, with revenue projected to reach $5 billion by Q4 2030.

SOFI $22B

Riyado Sofian Oct 31

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.

AZN $270B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

GFL · long

Gfl Environmental INC

GFL Environmental, North America’s fourth-largest waste manager with a US$19 billion market cap, is pitched long.

GFL $16B

Value Investors Club Jul 8

How Ethos Sold Wall Street on AI While Powering an Analog Boiler Room

Ethos Technologies ($LIFE) sells AI-driven life insurance while relying heavily on multilevel marketing agencies using aggressive cold…

LIFE $2.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 1 1 click

Karman Holdings q2’26 Earnings Update

Karman Holdings reported 58% Q2 revenue growth, $1.3 billion backlog and margin expansion while replacing leadership and remediating…

KRMN $5B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 1

Thursday Tailwinds #9: 1 October 2026

Indian bearing suppliers gain a US tariff advantage as SKF, Schaeffler and Timken build export capacity and source local rings, cages and…

TKR $7.9B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 1

[ROL – Rollins] The exterminator’s dilemma

Rollins’ shares have fallen more than 50% from their peak, resetting valuation as route density, reliable service and pricing support…

ROL $16B

scuttleblurb Oct 1 1 click

This Week in Special Situations: Pearson, CarMax, Talen Energy, KBR, Apollo Commercial Real Estate

Pearson, CarMax, Talen Energy, KBR and Apollo Commercial Real Estate lead a 33-company survey of activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and…

KMX $7.9BTLN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 1 1 click

HubSpot Valuation: SaaS-Pocalypse Discount And DCF Imply More Upside

HubSpot trades at 18.4x forward earnings and 3x sales after the SaaS selloff; a DCF using 22% FCF growth values shares at $302.66.

HUBS $12B

Bishop Research and Analytics Oct 1 2 clicks

Why I Agree With Rob Vinall on Wix

Wix’s paying-subscriber conversion fell from 2.72% to 2.01% since 2019, while Business Solutions drove growth and activist-led cost cuts…

WIX $3.2B

Ezra's Notes Oct 1 1 click

TWOD: Close Positions Or Tender Shares

TWOD holders can tender at $26.3841, sell before October 2, 2026, or await roughly $26.7578 in final redemption proceeds.

TTWO $37B

Colorado Wealth Management Fund Oct 1

Group 1's CEO Said "Competitive Advantages and Opportunities." A Car Dealer? I Went Looking.

Group 1’s 19% ownership cap, tied to automaker franchise agreements, frames Conifer’s 1.9 million-share stake and potential buyback-driven…

GPI $3.1B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 1 1 click

Sunday, November 1, 2026

Myles on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Myles on X

A Capital on X

A Capital on X

Paradis on X

Fierce_beast on X

junkbondinvestor on X

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