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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Odd two day movement in $KMX after earnings... Agree with the day 1 action - a stock that came into the report on a blistering run, and while the co. reported "improved" results, there are significant challenges still in front of them. Most of the improvement is driven by a dramatic lowering of sale prices to increase sales (gross profit dollars still lower). And that is a lever that will likely remain a permanence as they try and respond to efforts from $CVNA and others. I will credit them on lowering expenses as well, likely low hanging fruit and moves to reduce ("automate") reconditioning again following the caravan playbook of leaving cars closer to as returned. issues on loans remains in a market that is significantly challenged and does not appear on the verge of improving any time soon. The cha cha move Thursday and Friday would argue sets up a better short opportunity in the name as you have removed the IV from earnings to now look out the next few months on put/spreads looking for a cooling off. *even sell side numbers I put little stock in almost all are below, and most significantly from the current price (one could argue thats bullish to rerate but I see this more like Birk that is behaving more like a squeeze than actual fundamentals, hence the wide divergence)
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Pretty incredible market sells off software again aggressively at the same time ramping up public private credit exposed names like $MFC, $ARES, $FG (CEO left suddenly yesterday) all because they ride alongside the aggressive buying in money center banks in financial etc flows ($JPM up 14% in June). Seems like there needs to be some dispersion in public private credit and software - one side at current prices has to be wrong, guessing private credit lower is how the dispersion resolves itself
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Intensity and rapidness of recent moves is worth acknowledging. Not sure what to make of it. I understand the concept of oil/rates lower improving the backdrop for consumer discretionary but its not as if oil had not been trending lower for weeks, the deal always seemed more priced in versus priced out of markets *and china and us, Japan heavily released reserves to temper oil - so outside front month price movement - oil has been massaged lower for quite some time* Trying to understand what sets off names besides the incremental delta of lower rates.oil to send retail oriented names up 30-50% in a week or two? $ELF $CAVA $SHAK etc and some of these reported weak sales with lowered outlooks. Shak as recently as <2 weeks ago $MGNI - heavy insider selling past few days, stock is 30%+ in short time frame ELF $48-$70 in basically a week CAVA - $70-$92 in a few days -- $bros, shak similar moves $BIRK - pure short squeeze off float dynamics, but stock basically up 60% in a few weeks. Certainly a different market, but not sure its healthy to either see these names artificial pinned down in relation to the rest of the market narrative or react to slight incremental news with the some of the biggest runs in each individual companies entire trading history.....
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$SLP buyout today ends an ugly few years for the company. The core simulation software business, even in this ai world, still presents lots of value as key models are used by the FDA in drug approval process. But the management team after the founder stepped back destroyed the company with one destructive acquisition after another. Diluted the software with a heavy concentration on commoditized services revenue and less differentiated software assets, all purchased at high multiples to show "revenue growth". Mgmt destroyed the free cash flow, decimated the share price over the tenure but did allow management to rack up steadily increased compensation for themselves by growing the "size" of the company. A good case study in how poor management can take a wide moat business and turn it into a lousy one pretty fast. I imagine the new PE owners can extract out the bad business and excessive costs and generate a good return focusing on the original assets.

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