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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

Interesting setup in $VOYA ahead of Q3 earnings and TCIM’s November 24 no-confidence referendum. Can certainly see a path to $150+ in a strategic takeout given the quality of the retirement franchise… My hesitation is how much activist premium is already embedded in the stock. Shares are up ~30% since TCIM surfaced in April, and the referendum is non-binding. If Q3 disappoints and the activist fails to gain traction, hard to see why this couldn’t trade back toward the pre-activist ~$75 level. Love the potential upside, less convinced by the asymmetry at ~$97… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

35% of TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO H1 2026 revenue came from one customer it doesn’t name, and 22% came from companies under its own controlling shareholder. $TOYO manufactures solar cells, the processed silicon wafers that turn sunlight into electricity, and assembles some of them into panels (modules). Its cells use TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact), a common high-efficiency silicon cell design. $TOYO runs three factories: 1) Ethiopia (4 GW of cells): Started production in April 2025, six months after $TOYO announced the plant, added a second 2 GW line in August, and reached its 4 GW nameplate in October 2025. 2) Vietnam (2 GW of cells): Running since H2 2023, but its cells now go to non-U.S. markets like India and Taiwan, since the U.S. Commerce Department set anti-dumping and countervailing duties (taxes on imports sold below cost or subsidized) on Vietnamese cells in April 2025. 3) Texas (2 GW of modules): A leased 567,140-square-foot plant near Houston that started its first 1 GW line in October 2025 and had completed its second by early October 2026. It assembles panels from $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells. VSUN (Vietnam Sunergy JSC) is the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of, and both companies sit under the same majority shareholder, Abalance, a Japanese solar group. VSUN is still $TOYO’s lender, owed $51.4M including interest, and a past wafer supplier through its Chinese subsidiary. $TOYO’s $261.0M of H1 2026 revenue came from four lines: → Third-party cells (56.5%): $147.6M of cells sold to outside module makers. → Related-party sales (22.0%): $57.5M of cells and modules sold to VSUN and its affiliates. → OEM services (14.2%): $37.2M of fees for cells made under one customer’s name, which $TOYO books net, counting only its fee as revenue. → Third-party modules (7.2%): $18.7M of Texas-made panels. Upstream, 70% of the polysilicon (the refined silicon that wafers are cut from) in $TOYO’s Ethiopian cells comes from a U.S. producer and the rest from OCI’s plant in Malaysia, Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call. Resch also said its 2026 wafers come from non-China production, “including a designated facility in Indonesia.” $TOYO markets its supply chain as “non-FEOC,” free of any foreign entity of concern. U.S. buyers care, since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) denies the main clean-power tax credit to projects with too much equipment from Prohibited Foreign Entities, a label aimed at Chinese suppliers.

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

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