Saturday, October 31, 2026

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Oct 31 AMZN $2.6T

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 7 clicks

Oct 31 LITE $62B

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

P Equity Research 1 click

From X

@junkbondinvest Oct 26 1 click

junkbondinvestor on X

SpaceX just announced a ~$40bn GPU financing with Apollo. Recall Apollo has been doing these Musk GPU deals for a while now. The difference this time is scale. $40bn is massive. Gotta put that Athene money to work! $SPCX https://t.co/yjb0WCPHCs

@StableBread Oct 26 1 click

Fajasy on X

On EV to year-end ARR, Boost Run $BRUN now trades below CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. At $8.89/share, $BRUN’s EV is $989.7M. That’s 2.5x its $400M target for year-end ARR, down from 5.4x at the $22.93 price in my August 16 update. EV is market cap plus debt and lease liabilities, less unrestricted cash, using October 16 closes and June 30 balance sheets ($BRUN’s cash is pro forma for the warrant exercises). ARR is the midpoint of each company’s year-end 2026 target, which is $18.5-19.5B for CoreWeave, $7-9B for Nebius, $400M for $BRUN, and more than $4B for $IREN. At 2.5x, $BRUN trades below all three peers, including $IREN at 3.2x. A reasonable range for $BRUN is 2.5-5.0x, from where it trades today to just under the midpoint of CoreWeave’s 4.2x and Nebius’s 5.9x. I use the peers’ median rather than their average, since Nebius’s 5.9x skews the average higher. Nebius also owns more than 75% of its contracted power, while $BRUN owns no data centers (a different model, not a weakness).

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 26 4 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

As someone who grew up in the restaurant business and provided a lot of free child labor, there is nothing passive or boring about any of these businesses. These kind of tweets are harmful! Want 7.2-8.3% passive income? You may want to consider the $REXR $PSA $VNO preferred https://t.co/y1NuP1BOcD

@valuedontlie Oct 26

Colin King on X

Flagstar $FLG probably outside my "circle of competence" but can't help looking... Cut FY27 EPS guidance from $1.65 to $0.90 (ouch) and pushed out to FY28 (because higher rates?) $60bn loan book with half of it in questionable CRE/MF loans concentrated in NYC (former NYCB), another ~third in growing C&I loan book Efficiency ratio ugly $10 stock with $15/sh TBV = 0.67x Maybe a value trap?

@BarbarianCap Oct 26 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$EWZ : $SPY Lula : AOC 2026 : 2028 -25% : -XX%

@InvestSpecial Oct 26 1 click

Dalius - Special Sits on X

$NDLS is back at SSI write-up levels after a wild ride. Q3 results are weeks away, and the strategic review could wrap up soon. Activists own >50%, and a sale would give them a clear way out. Stock looks interesting again. Full update on SSI👇 https://t.co/5NMtZQjCME

@convequity Oct 26

Convequity on X

A confirmed Anthropic IPO would lower the odds that Broadcom $AVGO ever pays on its backstop of about $42 billion of senior debt owed by the vehicle that leases Google TPUs to Anthropic. A separate financing vehicle borrows the money, buys the TPUs and leases them to Anthropic, and Anthropic's lease payments cover that vehicle's debt. If Anthropic can't keep paying, Broadcom has agreed to cover part of the lenders' losses on about $42 billion of that senior debt. The support is there if Anthropic goes bust or falls into serious difficulty. It is not a promise to repay the entire amount. An IPO does not change the dollar size of that exposure. It changes the chance Broadcom has to pay. Up to $100 billion of new equity gives Anthropic more room to keep meeting the lease, so the vehicle is more likely to keep servicing its debt, and Broadcom is less likely to be called. A failed listing would raise that chance. In our view, confirmation of the listing is a modest positive for AVGO. The obligation stays. A confirmed listing makes it less likely to be called, and that shrinks the overhang.

@junkbondinvest Oct 26

junkbondinvestor on X

Meta is raising up to $95bn of equity to fund AI spending, ~$35bn of common and pref now plus up to ~$60bn through an ATM. Bondholders should like this. $META https://t.co/0iIKPds4CS

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M

The Oak Bloke Oct 31 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.6T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.

AZN $270B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 1 click

SK hynix: Despite Their Premium To The Korean Shares, The U.S. ADRs Are A Bargain

SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…

SKHY $806B

Adam Schadt Oct 30 2 clicks

PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B

Value Investors Club Aug 2

Regeneron (REGN) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review

Regeneron’s Q3 revenue rose 36% to $5.1 billion, driven by a 68% jump in Sanofi collaboration revenue, while operating income doubled to…

REGN $101B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts

Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.

BE $63B

Hunterbrook Oct 30 4 clicks

XOM Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review - Distribute Rating - No Paywall.

ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue rose 33% to $113.2 billion as refining earned $9.1 billion, surpassing upstream; the company set 2027 buybacks at…

XOM $771B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

Amazon 3Q’26: Trillion Dollar Talks

Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…

AMZN $2.6T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 30 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23BADT $7.2B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

Alphabet's Post-Earnings Selloff Is The Best Buying Opportunity In Years

Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.

GOOGL $3.4T

Rick Orford Oct 30 5 clicks

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY

Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.

AMZN $2.6TLLY $1.3T

Rebound Capital Oct 30 2 clicks

Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.

Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…

VRSK $26B

First Strike Research Oct 30 7 clicks

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Saturday, October 31, 2026

junkbondinvestor on X

Fajasy on X

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Colin King on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Dalius - Special Sits on X

Convequity on X

junkbondinvestor on X

Investor Letters

Publications we follow

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Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 69 of 269

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