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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The ransomware software of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) passed every test in a month-long third-party lab evaluation in 2023, and its biggest customer, Kroll, walked away anyway. In January 2022, Nubeva launched Ransomware Reversal, or NuRR, the product the company is now built around. It’s a lightweight agent installed on servers, desktops, and laptops that watches for the file encryption a ransomware attack produces, captures copies of the encryption keys as the malware generates them, and stores those keys on the customer’s own network. After the attack, Nubeva uses the captured keys to build a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption) and hands the customer its data back, without the ransom. The only outside test of NuRR I found was a month-long evaluation in 2023 at DreamPort, a lab in Maryland (the test doesn’t appear to have been commissioned by Nubeva). DreamPort is run by the Maryland Innovation and Security Institute (MISI), a nonprofit that partners with U.S. Cyber Command to connect the military with outside cybersecurity products. Per Nubeva’s July 20, 2023 release, NuRR passed all 17 tests in MISI’s test plan and captured the encryption keys in every attack, including ones using the LockBit, Ragnar Locker, and BlackBasta ransomware strains. But less than two months after the MISI results, Nubeva lost its biggest customer: → January 2023: Nubeva named Kroll, the risk advisory firm that runs more than 3,000 incident-response investigations a year, as a strategic partner using the product in its ransomware cases. → September 2023: Kroll ended the relationship and paid $180,000 to walk away. It had been 86% of FY2023 revenue (~$1.78M of $2.07M). Neither company gave a reason in a filing or press release. But in a July 2024 video on Nubeva’s YouTube channel, CEO Randy Chou said Kroll sometimes brought in 10 ransomware cases on the same weekend, and “neither the partner or us as a complete solution could handle the emergency services.” In an October 2025 video, he explained the constraint further. Each new ransomware variant needs its own decryptor, which Nubeva’s engineers built by hand. With 10 to 30 attacks running at once, “you don’t have enough engineers to go figure out the new decryptor.” Chou added that Nubeva “simply cannot afford to scale” its support, “and that’s still the reality,” so it’s waiting on automation before it grows again. A longtime investor I spoke with, who has followed Nubeva for years and has spoken with people who’ve used NuRR in the field, described the same constraint. He also says Kroll’s exit is why Nubeva stopped trying to grow on its own and bet on AI to write the decryptors.

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Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $4T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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