Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, October 31, 2026

Back to today

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$SITM supplies timing devices used in optical modules in NVIDIA-based AI data centers. In an AI data center, a clock exists to keep parts synchronized. Training and inference run across thousands of chips in parallel, and each step depends on data arriving at the right moment. When timing slips, GPUs wait, networks stall, and expensive compute goes unused. The move from 800G to 1.6T optical modules shows how this becomes demand for timing parts. Bandwidth does not simply double. The link is split into more lanes running at higher baud rates. Each lane has a tighter jitter budget, and it often adds clock domains for the DSPs, SerDes groups and laser drivers. So each module carries more timing components, and each component has to meet a higher performance requirement. That pushes average selling prices up alongside unit volumes. The same pattern appears in the switches inside that cluster. A high-radix switch multiplies SerDes lanes as bandwidth scales. When the switch increases radix and speed at the same time, it drives more clock domains across the fabric, the ports, and the control logic. Timing content in the switch therefore multiplies rather than rising in step with the size of the cluster. This is why we see continued hypergrowth for SiTime. In NVIDIA-based data centers, SiTime's parts are discrete devices, separate from the GPU and switch ASICs, allowing timing performance to improve independently as system requirements change, and demand for them rises in several places in the rack at once.
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Secular theme of increasing competition in the coffee space, no issue taking a position against SBUX which still carries a premium valuation largely on that premise. My flip side to that, is why also be long Dutch $BROS? Trades worked against you for almost the same reasons - intensifying competition from direct copy cat 7 Brew. But there are many regional players that are aggressively scaling - Summermoon, Foxtail, Lala land, Merrit, etc and those are the ones just geographically close to me but it's a countrywide phenomenon. Turns out yes coffee is habitual and generates good cash returns, but barriers to entry are low. The bidding war for the Salads real estate was insane, and shows how deep pocketed 7 Brew is in their expansion, and being PE backed and not public means they might be less disciplined...... So why Bros? There might still be potential there, the model is efficient and a cult service culture, but even at current levels I find the valuation difficult to digest not to mention overhangs from GLP1s, affordability/gas prices
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I tracked the production targets Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) has set for its AI decryptor builder since 2023, and it missed all four! Nubeva’s agent copies the encryption keys ransomware generates during an attack, but a victim can’t use the keys until someone writes a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption) for the strain behind the attack. Building every decryptor by hand is the capacity issue behind the 2023 exit of Kroll, Nubeva’s biggest customer. Nubeva’s FY2025 and FY2026 MD&As frame the same issue as cost, saying the company’s “current support structure carries costs that are not sustainable at scale.” Nubeva’s fix is to have AI write the decryptors instead. It announced a patent application for an AI decryptor builder in August 2023 and has pitched the builder ever since. Per the FY2026 MD&A, “a private, cryptographically trained AI engine” uses the captured keys to analyze encrypted samples, identifies the decryption method, and writes “the decryptor software, test kits, and documentation.” The goal is “a custom decryptor within an hour” of a customer getting hit by a new strain. Both MD&As also lay out two outcomes: → If automation works: Nubeva “will be positioned to re-expand its commercial footprint” through end users, managed security providers, incident-response firms, security integrations, and cyber insurers. → If automation falls short: Nubeva “will continue to advance and complete its IP portfolio, positioning the Company for strategic partnerships or potential M&A transactions.” Three years on, the AI decryptor builder still isn’t in production. The August 2023 release expected production “later this year,” the FY2024 and FY2025 MD&As said “later this year” again, and the December 2025 interim MD&A said “later this fiscal year.” Then the FY2026 MD&A, filed August 28, 2026, quietly dropped the date altogether. After four missed targets, dropping the date suggests Nubeva’s own builder isn’t close. CEO Randy Chou hinted at the delay in October 2025, saying Nubeva was “still waiting for an automated way to scale support,” which he said was true of “everybody else in the industry.” But the wait may finally be ending. On September 3, 2026 (six days after dropping the date), Nubeva said it had been approved for access to “a frontier artificial intelligence model made available to vetted organizations for authorized defensive cybersecurity work.” Nubeva doesn’t name the model’s provider, but the release came out the same day OpenAI committed $1B of subsidized access to its Daybreak cyber models. If the model is Daybreak, the access isn’t particularly rare. OpenAI said on September 3 that “thousands of defenders across 2,000 approved organizations and workspaces already use Daybreak.” Either way, decryption is where a frontier model could matter most, since writing a decryptor for an unfamiliar strain is the step Nubeva’s engineers still do by hand.

Investor Letters

All letters

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $4T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 73 of 273

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

314 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.