Saturday, October 31, 2026

@StableBread Oct 26 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

At CAD$1.98/share (October 23 close), you’re paying US$214-265M for Levack, the flagship restart project of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), or 62-76% of the enterprise value. On the 336.57M diluted count, Magna’s market cap is US$476M, and here’s how it breaks down: → Cash, incl. option proceeds: US$130M (CAD$0.54/share) → McCreedy West, the producing mine: US$28-43M (CAD$0.11-0.18/share) → Crean Hill, the permitted nickel mine: US$54-90M (CAD$0.22-0.37/share) → Levack, R2 (a high-grade zone at Levack), and the rest (implied): US$214-265M (CAD$0.89-1.10/share) For McCreedy West, I valued 3-5 years of margin, discounted at 8%. For Crean Hill, I applied 0.3-0.5x the US$179M after-tax NPV in its October 20 pre-feasibility study. To estimate how much Levack has to produce each year to justify the CAD$1.98 share price, I assumed: → Margin: US$1.85/payable lb before taxes. I started with McCreedy West’s Q2 cash margin of US$1.41/lb, subtracted US$0.42/lb of H1 sustaining capital, and added back the US$0.86/lb the precious metals stream took in Q2. CEO Jason Jessup said most of the tons in Levack’s October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) would come from the contact zones, which I assume sit outside the stream, since the PEA release doesn’t say how much ore the stream covers. → Timing: 7.3 years of output starting in mid-2028, per the PEA. → Taxes: 27% of the value, the share Levack’s PEA loses to taxes. → Discount rate: 8%. On these assumptions, US$214-265M requires 32-40M payable lbs/year from Levack before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine). The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital adds ~7.5M lbs/year to the requirement, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M, or ~1M lbs/year. Jessup had said Levack could produce 2-3x McCreedy West’s output. The PEA plans 36.8M payable lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, ~2.2x McCreedy West’s 17M lbs guidance midpoint. So at Q2 margins, CAD$1.98 assumes close to the PEA’s output, which leaves out R2. But 2.1M of the PEA’s 5.75M short tons are inferred resources (from more widely spaced holes), so over a third of the plan rests on less certain tonnes. However, a 10% higher realized price adds US$0.60/lb to the margin and cuts the requirement to 24-30M lbs/year, well below the PEA’s 36.8M. Since Q2, copper is up 8.3% from Magna’s average ($6.54/lb vs. $6.04), while nickel is down 13.5% ($7.12 vs. $8.23). Nickel is 46.0% of the PEA’s revenue and copper 34.8%, so for Levack, nickel’s drop outweighs copper’s gain. In other words, higher copper prices alone won’t lower what Levack has to deliver. Nickel has to recover too.

@SouthernValue95 Oct 26 19 clicks

SouthernValue on X

Revenue per Employee at $MSFT $META $GOOG over time https://t.co/dzpIP53xEt

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 26

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

@JohnDoeKnowsGuy Owning some $TLT calls isn’t such a bad idea

@stockgutter Oct 26 3 clicks

SG on X

@ConnorJBates_ not all are expensive. examples: $CPB $ENR

@calvinblissett Oct 26 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

Cury ($CURY3): The Market Sold the One Homebuilder Lula Just Protected Brazil hit its first circuit breaker since 2020 and Cury printed −40%. A 74% ROE builder at 7x earnings, the Caixa problem, the people, and what it's worth. I daresay $NVR model but better, Brazil has structural housing defecit https://t.co/nkR1sqMH6b

@DeepSailCapital Oct 26 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$DLO was also hit hard (which shouldn’t really have been because of the diversified model) and I started a position today.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 26 4 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI this morning was a gift to long term investors. Take them when you get them. Be ready.

@ActAccordingly Oct 26 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

Gavin, you're always generous with your time on this platform and forthcoming with your views, which I genuinely appreciate. Where are you getting the $35Bish in future annual commitments when they have $500B in compute purchase commitments over a 5-7 year span PLUS the $AMD chip leasing deal (uncertain tenor) which is another $160B? Anthropic might very well grow fast enough not to burn cash, but that's not how the company frames it in their S-1. Rather than take my word for it, here's the relative language in the S-1: "As a result, we expect these investments to result in significant net cash used in operating and investing activities for the foreseeable future, and our net cash used in these activities may increase regardless of whether our financial performance improves" The business model is changing going forward. $ANT