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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Starting to think $MGM is absurdly cheap here at ~$29… Market extrapolating a terrible Vegas quarter (EBITDAR -12%, RevPAR -8%) while largely ignoring Macau share gains, BetMGM profitability and Osaka optionality. More interestingly, the buyback window reopens 10/30 with $1.4bn remaining (~20% of market cap). Management willing to take leverage from ~4x to 4.5–5x. Vegas weakness is real, but the marginal buyer is potentially the company itself, with substantial firepower at precisely the wrong price for sellers. Note: Barry Diller ($PPLI) was willing to pay $48/share for this exact same company a few months ago… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If First Solar $FSLR wins its patent case at the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO cells could be barred from the U.S. First Solar filed a complaint at the ITC on February 24, 2026, claiming certain TOPCon cells, a common high-efficiency silicon cell design, infringe one of its patents. The ITC voted on March 26 to open Investigation 337-TA-1494, naming $TOYO, its Texas subsidiary, VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of), and VSUN’s U.S. arm among 47 respondents. The ITC’s target date is November 15, 2027. The patent case won’t be decided before late 2027, but it’s another way $TOYO’s cells could be stopped at the border. I’m not worried about the patent case yet, since the ITC’s target date is more than a year away and dozens of other respondents face the same claim.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 1 click

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.4B
Value Investors Club

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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