Saturday, October 31, 2026

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Oct 31 AMZN $2.9T

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Earnings Update: Q3 2026

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 7 clicks

Oct 31 LITE $62B

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

P Equity Research 1 click

From X

@negligible_cap Oct 6

Negligible Capital on X

I’m not in the business of shorting things that go up but $CRWD at 40x forward sales is pretty hard to wrap your head around CRWD multiple is now above 2021 levels (not to mention yields were at 1% then) https://t.co/cwvddlRrdH

@TidefallCapital Oct 6

Trevor Scott on X

@bigpoppastonk @Leetspeaker1337 @dcurras1 I think $MU is like 6x PE for next year but yes it's too hard for me.

@finphysnerd Oct 6 1 click

Myles on X

A lot of people bullish $NFLX here. I'm tempted to go short. They are losing to doomscroll slop and they have competition on every side investing more aggressively than they are. https://t.co/F0Mw0GYXwa

@leevalueroach Oct 6

Lee Roach on X

Geo Group $GEO down 8% on a massive facility sale seems kind of crazy.

@ACapitalLP Oct 6 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Wondering if $MIAX is a perception vs. reality trade? Perception: Kalshi single-stock perps will cannibalize options and structurally impair $MIAX. Reality: perps are initially limited to mega-cap, highly liquid names, there’s no evidence of cannibalization yet, options volumes remain strong, and $MIAX can ultimately participate in perps itself… 🤷‍♂️

@ChrisCamillo Oct 6 3 clicks

Chris Camillo on X

One of the most important disciplines in investing is constantly updating the best argument against your own position. Not dismissing it. Not looking for reasons it’s wrong. Actually understanding it well enough to decide how much conviction your own thesis deserves. $AMZN has badly lagged the market and many other AI names recently, and I think the counter thesis has evolved. The biggest new threat is agentic commerce. Meta’s Muse and other AI agents could increasingly control product discovery and purchasing, potentially weakening Amazon’s retail and advertising moat. That’s real. But I think it plays out slowly, Amazon will adapt through its own agents, including Project Moonraker, or partnerships that are seeking access into and monetization from the world’s largest ecommerce platform, and in an agent-first world the upside to AWS, Trainium, Graviton and Amazon’s broader AI infrastructure business could ultimately more than offset the advertising dollars at risk. Then there’s Anthropic. A recent barrage of negative headlines around slowing growth and Meta/Microsoft reducing Claude usage has spilled over into $AMZN sentiment. Again, worth taking seriously. But much of that narrative looks incomplete. Anthropic’s revenue growth remains extraordinary, its IPO appears very much alive, and its massive long term commitment to AWS remains intact. We are still early and one can make a strong argument that AWS has more to gain from an open source first AI world than it would lose from Anthropic’s and OAI’s relative weakness, if it even plays out that way. And now sharply higher diesel prices create another near term headwind to Amazon’s shipping margins. That’s real too. But either fuel prices normalize or as with past cost inflation Amazon eventually passes much of the higher cost through while continuing to drive down fulfillment costs. I don’t need the counter thesis to be wrong to own $AMZN. I just need the bull thesis to be more right.

@negligible_cap Oct 6 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

S&P earnings expected to increase 27% in Q3 (slight decel from Q2). Chopping that growth up a few ways (H/T to GS’s Tony P): -->80% of growth expected to be driven by tech and energy -->Half the growth driven by AI infrastructure names -->1/3rd of the growth driven by $MU and $NVDA alone Headline 27% eps growth estimates not quite as healthy as they appear

@stockgutter Oct 6

SG on X

$FRVO price drops from ~$31 on Jun 26 to ~$13.50, and now they publish a short report? https://t.co/57Dy0iV2lE

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B

Stock Thoughts Oct 31 4 clicks

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T

Yiannis Zourmpanos Oct 31 2 clicks

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap

Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.

AMZN $2.9T

Steve Eisman Oct 30 5 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $90B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.

AZN $285B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 1 click

SK hynix: Despite Their Premium To The Korean Shares, The U.S. ADRs Are A Bargain

SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…

SKHY $729B

Adam Schadt Oct 30 2 clicks

Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts

Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.

BE $63B

Hunterbrook Oct 30 4 clicks

PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B

Value Investors Club Aug 2

Regeneron (REGN) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review

Regeneron’s Q3 revenue rose 36% to $5.1 billion, driven by a 68% jump in Sanofi collaboration revenue, while operating income doubled to…

REGN $101B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

XOM Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review - Distribute Rating - No Paywall.

ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue rose 33% to $113.2 billion as refining earned $9.1 billion, surpassing upstream; the company set 2027 buybacks at…

XOM $689B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

Amazon 3Q’26: Trillion Dollar Talks

Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…

AMZN $2.9T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 30 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23BADT $7.2B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY

Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.

AMZN $2.9TLLY $1.3T

Rebound Capital Oct 30 2 clicks

Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.

Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…

VRSK $26B

First Strike Research Oct 30 7 clicks

Alphabet: Don’t Search for a Straight Line in Innovation

Alphabet’s Q3 2026 cloud growth stayed strong while Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, with higher AI capital spending driving negative…

GOOGL $3.4T

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 30 3 clicks

Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity

Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…

TNGX $3.7B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 30 2 clicks

Saturday, October 31, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Trevor Scott on X

Myles on X

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A Capital on X

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