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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

AI swarms could make network security more important. Anthropic's October 12 research ran an AI model across 15 cheap Android TV boxes at 0.39 tokens per second. The small models still couldn't reliably complete the full replication cycle. I think we're still early. Inference on this hardware is painfully slow. But the idea is interesting because human-level intelligence isn't necessary for something to reproduce and spread. Think of insects: limited individual intelligence, yet populations can spread widely. An AI worm could carry its model with it, adapt to unfamiliar devices and use compromised hardware to run the next copy. A model too large for one device could be split across several. Better processors and more memory in future cameras, TV boxes and other connected devices would make more local inference possible, wherever attackers can gain access. That creates a security problem beyond installing software on individual devices. You're not going to put an endpoint security agent on every camera or TV box. You need to identify those devices through the network, restrict what they can communicate with and isolate them when compromised. A perimeter firewall alone cannot inspect traffic that never passes through it. I think $FTNT could benefit here. Its agentless device discovery and network segmentation fit this problem, especially across distributed sites. More capable AI on unmanaged devices could increase demand for those controls. The opportunity also extends to networking vendors that integrate security into switches and wireless access points, where they can control how devices connect and communicate.
@stockgutter 1 click

SG on X

I am a skeptic of the current quantum companies but cannot ignore that $IONQ just doubled its cash hoard from $2B to $4B, selling shares/prefunded warrants at $40 (above market) covered 2:1 by warrants with a strike at $69.46. Not a bad move imo. While I agree with critics that the warrants are a bit oppressive, shitcos will have to pay up one way or another to raise $$ in size. There are worse structures. No position in IonQ rn, but considering selling long-dated calls in the 2x inverse ETF $IONZ - I think the underlying will participate strongly in any junk bounce towards year end.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$NVDA's falling unit share in China's data-centre AI chip market overstates how much business Nvidia has lost to Huawei. Three things explain why. 1. IDC counts units, and did not say whether that count includes the Blackwell parts barred from China and reportedly smuggled in. Chinese demand also reaches Nvidia outside China. Xiaomi or ByteDance rents a Blackwell cluster in Malaysia from a local cloud provider. That is Nvidia revenue from a Chinese buyer that never appears as a Chinese unit. So Nvidia's share of what Chinese buyers spend on AI compute is higher than its share of counted units. 2. Huawei's volume growth is real, and memory explains how. Huawei cannot get enough stacked high-bandwidth memory, the HBM that top-end AI chips need. The 910C ran on an older grade, HBM2E, that Huawei had been able to mass procure. The new 950PR uses lower-bandwidth single stack memory instead of stacked HBM, so the 950PR does not depend on HBM supply. Each chip moves data more slowly, and Huawei can make many more of them. Also, we expect 950DT to ramp up quite quickly alongside 960DT coming earlier in 1Q27 instead of original 4Q27 timeline due to Huawei's own HBM variant that is able to ramp up production quicker. 3. So Nvidia's drop is not Nvidia failing to supply China. In our view, it has three causes: US export rules that bar its best parts, Beijing promoting domestic chips and requiring approval to import Nvidia's compliant ones, and a 950 series that beats the 910 series it replaces and is production-wise attractive for model serving. For Nvidia, where Chinese compute spend goes matters more than the China unit count, and much of it still goes to Nvidia hardware, in China or in Malaysia.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes down together. There's merit to a lot of things (I've been voicing Coreweave concerns about debt interest + rate hikes for the longest time...). But much like high end memory flooding to nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when the $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints... were missed. You can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows

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Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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