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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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@ChrisCamillo

Chris Camillo on X

You can be dead right about the business and still get absolutely crushed trading AI earnings right now. $AMZN could blow away every expectation tonight and get punished for raising capex to meet unprecedented demand. That’s how absurd this fear driven market has become. Almost any data point or management comment that can be twisted into a negative narrative becomes fuel for the fear trade regardless of context. Makes it difficult to build conviction to lever into earnings when the biggest risk isn’t the business disappointing. It’s the market’s reaction to the business succeeding. Know the market you’re trading. We’re playing with fire
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

An excerpt from our article about Expand Energy $EXE that we published this morning after Danny Brown took over as the new CEO this week: Natural gas may not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think about the AI boom. But as companies race to build data centers, finding enough electricity to power them is becoming just as important as getting hold of the top GPU chips from NVIDIA $NVDA Expand Energy is a company you might recognize by its old name, Chesapeake Energy. Chesapeake has quite a history. It was one of the biggest names in America’s shale gas boom, built aggressively by its co-founder Aubrey McClendon. But its rapid expansion came with enormous debt, and the company eventually ended up in bankruptcy in 2020. Today, it looks very different. Following its merger with Southwestern Energy, Chesapeake became Expand Energy, creating the largest natural gas producer in the United States. The company is performing well, with our quant model IA Score rating it a 90 (a higher score is better), even though natural gas prices haven’t enjoyed the same strength as oil. That is what caught my attention. Natural gas producers typically do well when gas prices rise and struggle when they fall. Yet Expand appears to be building a business that could benefit from more than just a recovery in commodity prices. And now, with Danny Brown taking over as CEO, the company is entering another interesting chapter. To understand the opportunity and why this company is worth watching, we need to rewind the tape and go back to where it all started: Chesapeake Energy.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

This has been a very active week for M&A activity with 6 new deals announced and half of them over $10 billion in size. The largest spread is for the acquisition of Maplebear (the weird name for Instacart) $CART by DoorDash $DASH with the deal trading for a 11% discount to the acquisition price. Considering what happened with the merger of the uniform rental companies UniFirst $UNF and Cintas this week and Mayor Mamdani's comments about the Instacart acquisition, it is not going to be easy for DoorDash to get this deal to the finish line.

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Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 1 click

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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