When the liquidity does not add up
Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.
Saturday, October 31, 2026
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Dalius - Special Sits on X
A formal phase-two strategic review is now underway. Transaction comps imply 10–14x EBITDA versus $PBI’s much lower multiple. Greystone’s conservative value is in the mid-$20s versus ~$16.50, with a deal offering further upside.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
AI could pressure $DOX revenue, but also lower delivery costs. If the embedded managed-services franchise holds up, modest growth and buybacks could drive attractive returns without a heroic recovery. The key risk is AI savings flowing to customers rather than shareholders.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
9/ $PBI pitch by @GreystoneCap Pitney Bowes owns a sticky postage-meter installed base and the only national-scale US presort network. The market still treats it as a terminally declining mailing-equipment business.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
8/ $DOX pitch by Rewey Asset Management ~7x FCF for mission-critical telecom software priced like an AI casualty. Roughly two-thirds of Amdocs’ revenue comes from long-term managed services built around proprietary billing and customer-care systems that are risky to replace.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
7/ $RMTI pitch by @MinotLightCap Potential $18–30/share vs ~$8. Rockwell supplies dialysis concentrates in an effective US duopoly and has finally turned FCF positive. At entry, ~$15m of net cash backed a ~$30m market cap, leaving the operating business valued at ~$15m.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
$RMTI management targets ~$100m of revenue by 2030, potentially supporting $5-10m of FCF. Years of losses and a reverse split have left investors skeptical. Still illiquid and operationally fragile, but sustained cash generation could drive a substantial re-rating.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
5/ $FOUR pitch by Emeth Value Capital Shift4 is an end-to-end payments platform dominating attractive verticals. It is the #2 US restaurant POS provider, serves ~40% of US hotels and processes payments for 75%+ of professional sports venues.
Dalius - Special Sits on X
4/ $NAVI pitch by @gatorcapital Navient trades near 40% of TBV as the market treats its legacy student-loan portfolio as a melting ice cube. But private lending has returned to growth, with Q1 marking its first portfolio expansion since 2021.
Investor Letters
All letters- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $35BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 BP $120BLUV $21B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 CLVT $1.4BAAP $2.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.6BCALY $3B
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 BOIVF $12BAVOL $8.2B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 CACI $13BHONA $50B
- Fairtree Asset Management Q3 2026 SSL $9.7B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 BSVN $553MFTLF $75M
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Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With
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American Tower's Starlink Opportunity
American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.
Dane Bowler 4 clicks
CVX Earnings Review
Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…
AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.
SNY Earnings Review
Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts
Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.
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Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
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Regeneron (REGN) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review
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Applied Materials: A 51% Growth Quarter At 23x Forward Earnings
Applied Materials posted 51% growth while trading near 23 times forward earnings; memory spending and fab construction support orders, but…
Capital Minded 1 click
What a Marvell-Lumentum Deal Means for DSPs, Lasers, and Modules
Marvell’s reported Lumentum bid would combine DSPs, lasers and optical modules, but $4 billion of cash and $5 billion of debt point to a…
Smart Fit: Global Fitness Ambitions (Ticker: SMFT3)
Smart Fit, Brazil’s SMFT3, is expanding its low-cost gym network across Latin America, with corporate-wellness platform TotalPass adding to…
Another Haircut with Avy the Barber
SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.
Miami International: Q3 Growth And Operating Leverage Impress (Rating Upgrade)
Miami International Holdings posted 20% Q3 revenue growth and 47% EBITDA growth as options volumes, market-share gains and operating…
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Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside
Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…
INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review
Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.
Bloody Thursday: Defending Alphabet, now Amazon and Intel in the penalty box
Alphabet, Amazon and Intel face market pressure as the big three cloud giants reaffirm AI spending plans.
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Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
