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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

From X

@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

I think this is a good analysis and I'm long $QURE, but I want to flag something about this style of argument because it shows up across a lot of stocks. The common version is "the fundamentals are much better than they were x years ago, but the market cap is the same, so it must be underpriced." That doesn't follow. A disconnect like that means one of the two prices was wrong. It could be too cheap now, or it could have been too expensive before. All you actually know is that the market was probably wrong once. (To credit: @ClearPath100 doesn't explicitly say it's underpriced here.) That said, I still think these situations are worth finding. I generally assume the market is more often right than wrong, so a stock that moves with its fundamentals isn't very interesting. The disconnects are where the market might be wrong, and that's what we want. You just have to do the work to figure out which price was the wrong one. For QURE, I think the shorter comparison is more useful than the 5 year one. The stock was $70+ before the FDA denial that took it to $8. It's $48 today at a lower market cap than it was at $70. In between, the path to approval got better, not worse. The BLA is filed, the confirmatory study design is agreed, the timeline to commercialization is shorter, there's a year more of follow up data, and more cash on the balance sheet. Every risk that exists today also existed at $70. The biggest risk that did exist at $70, the FDA refusing the dataset, has already played out and been resolved. So which price was wrong? My guess is a lot of sharp people owned this at $70+, dumped it on the news, and never came back. I think they were right to sell back then. But if you were right to own it at $75 with more risks and a longer timeline, you should want to own it even more at $48 with fewer risks and a shorter one. Not buying it back isn't consistent with their own original view. I think the reason is simple. Losing 75% on a stock stings, and it's a lot easier to stay away than to admit the same thesis is back on the table at a better price. That's part of why we own it here. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for informational educational only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $17B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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