Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, October 31, 2026

Back to today

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Why I think Nvidia buying Reflection AI helps Palantir more than it hurts $NVDA wants its models inside enterprises, not just hyperscalers, neo-clouds and AI labs. Buying Reflection AI would speed that up. The FT reported on 10 Oct that Nvidia is in early talks to buy Reflection, raise its stake, supply it more chips, or hire its team and license its technology. Bloomberg's source says no terms have been reached. Nvidia has already invested $800m, so a buyout or a bigger stake means pricing a company it already partly owns. The enterprise push Nvidia agreed in September to buy Hugging Face for $12.9bn. Jensen Huang says more than 200,000 companies use it to deploy AI. Reflection is validated on Dell's AI Factory with Nvidia, and $PLTR's sovereign AI stack runs on Nvidia's AI factory design. Reflection is built for enterprise code. Its Asimov agent reads a company's code, Slack messages, emails and documents. Its first model, Beam (501bn parameters, 23bn active), is trained for coding. Reflection says the weights ship this month under Apache 2.0, for on-prem or air-gapped use. The bear case: Nemotron is moving too slowly at Palantir One reading is that Nvidia wants Reflection because its Nemotron models are moving too slowly with Palantir. I think that is unlikely, given how Palantir has executed. At AIPCon on 10 Sep, Nvidia's supply-chain team said Nemotron 3.5 Lightning, post-trained in Palantir, beat Nemotron 3 Ultra by a large gap on Nvidia's own benchmark. It runs on-prem and retrains on one GPU in a couple of hours. Cisco will offer Nemotron post-trained with Palantir in its AI Factory with Nvidia. L3Harris said open models fine-tuned on its own data beat the frontier models it had used within 48 hours, at 95% lower cost. Palantir has kept shipping open-model deployments. In June it launched an engine to run Nemotron in sovereign environments, and customers own the retrained models. On 1 Oct Armada became its first certified modular data-centre partner. On 12 Oct $ONDS formed Regna AI on AIP and open-weight models. The likelier case: Nvidia is backing more than one route Palantir fits open models to a company's data, permissions and workflows. Reflection is built to read the company's code. Buying a team that has already built that is quicker than building it in-house. The limit is vendor API rules Reflection reaches a company's systems through the vendors' APIs, and vendors decide what passes through them. $SAP's April API policy bars AI agents that plan or execute API calls, and bulk data extraction, outside SAP-endorsed pathways. Since May 2025, Slack's API terms bar third-party apps from using Slack data to train a large language model or bulk-exporting messages. Those rules apply to Palantir too. In May, SAP made Palantir AIP for data migration an SAP Endorsed App. An independent Reflection would likely need similar approval from each vendor whose systems it reads. Who pays the compute rent Reflection trained Beam on Nvidia GB300s rented from $SPCX at Colossus 2 in Memphis, under a June deal worth up to $6.3bn: about $150m a month through 2029. $NBIS agreed in July to sell it $1bn more capacity. If Nvidia buys Reflection, it takes on those contracts and pays SpaceX rent on Nvidia chips that SpaceX bought. In an acqui-hire, the contracts stay with what remains of Reflection unless the deal says otherwise. The FT says an acqui-hire would likely avoid a long regulatory review. Nebius holders should watch which company ends up owing that $1bn contract. What it means for Palantir The risk is an independent Reflection selling its own forward-deployed team and turnkey stack, which is how Palantir sells. If Nvidia owns Reflection, I expect Beam to reach AIP customers the same way Nemotron does, with each customer fine-tuning it on its own data inside Palantir.

Investor Letters

All letters

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 73 of 273

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

329 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.