Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats 6 clicks

Broken Moats on X

$BSP really have to question Gregg as the right to choice to lead Berkshire with this BSP investment. While it's meaningless in size to Berkshire, it's what it says about the investment process under Gregg and how they are underwriting managers. This does not strike me as a Buffet investment on any level. Something to watch as he continues to deploy capital....not sure how you get comfortable with an acquisition roll up of intangible assets, especially against the unknown of ai disruption. They should go back and study the intangible asset roll ups from the prior decade in the pharma space
@kevin__mak 4 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

I believe there's a high % chance $QURE gets its approval. Stuff like this from the FDA, in my eyes, further strengthens that belief. They want to generally make the review criteria more clear, more patient (advocacy) focused, and more flexible about what evidence is reasonably attainable. Not lenient for the sake of being reckless, but because there are situations that warrant different criteria. I think it would be quite incongruent to be vocally advocating for these new policies (which are suspiciously similar to the QURE debacle), while simultaneously crushing a high-profile drug approval like AMT-130. Incongruent doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it seems like the tail outcome. "The new framework is intended to enable patient input at earlier stages and at milestones throughout the development and review process. It also aims to provide greater clarity and consistency to drug developers on regulatory decision making. The agency said in a statement that it should take into account what evidence is reasonably attainable, given the nature of rare diseases." To be clear, FDA officials denied that the initiative was motivated by the earlier controversies. The connection to AMT-130, and the positive read-through, is my interpretation. "In an interview, senior officials at the agency denied that the initiative had anything to do with the earlier controversies" --- Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds positions in QURE. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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