Saturday, October 31, 2026

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 3 clicks

Oct 31 LITE $62B

Expert Call | Optical Module Ramps, Lumentum vs. Coherent Momentum, Server CPU, and Advanced Packaging Constraints

P Equity Research 1 click

Oct 31 FTAI $20B

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP Oct 12

A Capital on X

$KYIV < $12 👀

@StableBread Oct 12

Fajasy on X

See the 10-Q note on the $131.9M of capped calls here: https://t.co/qisg1oxKVm Continue reading here for the Navy suppliers I compare $BWXT against: https://t.co/bPIYua98gd

@StableBread Oct 12

Fajasy on X

In November 2025, BWX Technologies $BWXT sold $1.25B of 0% convertible notes due November 2030 and used $830.8M of the proceeds to repay its old credit facility. The conversion price is $262.51/share, 80.2% above $145.70, and $131.9M of capped calls offset dilution up to $396.24/share. Dilution has been minimal so far. Diluted shares have held at ~92M since 2023, helped by small buybacks ($30M in 2025). But stock comp rose to $20.1M in H1 2026 from $13.7M a year earlier, although it’s still only 1.1% of revenue, up from 0.9%. Management also said on the Q2 call it doesn’t plan buybacks in 2026, despite $347.6M left on the authorization, so nothing will offset the new shares. Even after paying ~$200M for Precision Components Group (PCG) on July 1, $BWXT’s leverage is within its 2-3x target: → Debt: $2.05B ($400M of 4.125% notes due June 2028, $400M of 4.125% notes due April 2029, and the $1.25B convert). → Cash and liquidity: $400M of cash and $1.7B of total liquidity, including an undrawn $1.25B revolver running to November 2030. → Leverage: 2.7x net debt to TTM adjusted EBITDA, or $1.65B of net debt on $602.1M of EBITDA. The $750M from selling its medical isotope business would cut leverage to 1.5x. → Ratings: Fitch BBB (investment grade) since September 2026; S&P BB+ and Moody’s Ba1, one notch below. → Other obligations: $152.0M of underfunded pension and retiree benefit plans. Net debt has hovered between $1.0B and $1.5B since 2023. $BWXT pays a dividend of $0.27/quarter ($1.08/year, a 0.7% yield), raised from $0.25 in February 2026. The company expects $5.5B of capital to deploy through 2030 at 2-3x leverage, with $3.5B left after capex and dividends. That’s what CFO Mike Fitzgerald said at $BWXT’s Investor Day on September 29, 2026, and he also put organic growth first for the $3.5B. But he said $BWXT is “not anchored to the same size of transactions” it has done before, and the deck lists “Disciplined Acquisitions” among the revenue drivers behind the 2030 targets. In other words, $BWXT has the track record and, once the medical sale closes, the balance sheet to go after its 2030 targets.

@valuedontlie Oct 12 3 clicks

Colin King on X

$BCO $NATL merger math from VIC write-up $20 FCF per share might be conservative (BCO trading at ~$100 today) https://t.co/O1NWMNisIW

@InvestSpecial Oct 12

Dalius - Special Sits on X

Another odd-lot split-off worked out for SSI subs. $MDT offer expired at the max exchange ratio, with MMED shares expected this week. Hedged odd lots from write-up levels should net ~$600 after borrow fees and dividends. Full pitch below 👇 https://t.co/obUHH77Ddq

@BrokenMoats Oct 12

Broken Moats on X

Pretty odd divergence in the move in $SHAK versus the rest of the QSR space in the past 10 days.....

@ActAccordingly Oct 12 4 clicks

PAA Research on X

Jevons Paradox Is Not a Business Model: We Might Be Building Too Much Compute and Four Other Reasons Why the AI CAPEX Cycle Could Come Crashing Down https://t.co/EFTszhT3kH $ALAB $APLD $BE $CAT $CLS $CRWV $ETN $FN $GEV $HUT $LITE $MOD $NBIS $NVT $ORCL $POWL $STRL $TLN $VRT

@ACapitalLP Oct 12 2 clicks

A Capital on X

@MLedrappier Look at $CIFR < $14.00. Do you see that? I could be wrong… 🤷‍♂️

SoFi Technologies: Nobody Saw This Coming

SoFi raised its 2026 guidance after a blowout Q3 and issued a strong 2027 outlook, with revenue projected to reach $5 billion by Q4 2030.

SOFI $22B

Riyado Sofian Oct 31

Life360 ($LIF): The Family App Wall Street Fell Out of Love With

Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…

LIF $3.6B

Substack von Philipp Oct 31 3 clicks

American Tower's Starlink Opportunity

American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.

AMT $88B

Dane Bowler Oct 30 3 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 3 clicks

AstraZeneca (AZN) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.

AZN $270B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 1 click

Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts

Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.

BE $63B

Hunterbrook Oct 30 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23BADT $7.2B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 30 1 click

Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.

Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…

VRSK $26B

First Strike Research Oct 30 7 clicks

Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity

Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…

TNGX $3.7B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 30 2 clicks

PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B

Value Investors Club Aug 2

Regeneron (REGN) Q3 FY 12/26 Earnings Review

Regeneron’s Q3 revenue rose 36% to $5.1 billion, driven by a 68% jump in Sanofi collaboration revenue, while operating income doubled to…

REGN $101B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 30 2 clicks

Applied Materials: A 51% Growth Quarter At 23x Forward Earnings

Applied Materials posted 51% growth while trading near 23 times forward earnings; memory spending and fab construction support orders, but…

AMAT $310B

Capital Minded Oct 30 1 click

What a Marvell-Lumentum Deal Means for DSPs, Lasers, and Modules

Marvell’s reported Lumentum bid would combine DSPs, lasers and optical modules, but $4 billion of cash and $5 billion of debt point to a…

MRVL $150BLITE $62B

Vik's Newsletter Oct 30 1 click

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 29 3 clicks

Miami International: Q3 Growth And Operating Leverage Impress (Rating Upgrade)

Miami International Holdings posted 20% Q3 revenue growth and 47% EBITDA growth as options volumes, market-share gains and operating…

MIAX $3.2B

Seeking Profits Oct 29 4 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B

Irrational Analysis Oct 29 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 29 4 clicks

Bloody Thursday: Defending Alphabet, now Amazon and Intel in the penalty box

Alphabet, Amazon and Intel face market pressure as the big three cloud giants reaffirm AI spending plans.

INTC $348B

The Technology Letter Oct 29 1 click

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B

The Technology Letter Oct 29 2 clicks

Saturday, October 31, 2026

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