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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Starting to think $MGM is absurdly cheap here at ~$29… Market extrapolating a terrible Vegas quarter (EBITDAR -12%, RevPAR -8%) while largely ignoring Macau share gains, BetMGM profitability and Osaka optionality. More interestingly, the buyback window reopens 10/30 with $1.4bn remaining (~20% of market cap). Management willing to take leverage from ~4x to 4.5–5x. Vegas weakness is real, but the marginal buyer is potentially the company itself, with substantial firepower at precisely the wrong price for sellers. Note: Barry Diller ($PPLI) was willing to pay $48/share for this exact same company a few months ago… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If First Solar $FSLR wins its patent case at the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO cells could be barred from the U.S. First Solar filed a complaint at the ITC on February 24, 2026, claiming certain TOPCon cells, a common high-efficiency silicon cell design, infringe one of its patents. The ITC voted on March 26 to open Investigation 337-TA-1494, naming $TOYO, its Texas subsidiary, VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of), and VSUN’s U.S. arm among 47 respondents. The ITC’s target date is November 15, 2027. The patent case won’t be decided before late 2027, but it’s another way $TOYO’s cells could be stopped at the border. I’m not worried about the patent case yet, since the ITC’s target date is more than a year away and dozens of other respondents face the same claim.

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OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $169M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.4B
Value Investors Club

The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

FRMI $1.9B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks

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