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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TZOO. Something happened after I posted this. For the second time someone intelligent reached out sharing their thoughts and insists. They were one of the only people to speak to the CEO in the past year. I’d never looked too deeply but it’s been on Joel Greenblatt magic formula for years now. They underwent a significant business model change. I can attest to the value proposition personally because recently I traveled somewhere where they posted a very popular (very good value) deal. AI is not as much of a threat as it may seem and actually is more likely to be a tailwind which I explain. The business model grew through 2008 so I’m not overly concerned about recession risk, and their reports show that 74% of their affluent travel loving customer base would cut travel last. I think the stock can 4x. It reminds me of $BMBL sentiment and accounting wise. Writeup tommrow
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$SSTK: $4.14, $153M mkt cap, ~$317M EV, ~$90M of TTM FCF. That's ~59% of the market cap in one year of free cash flow, ~3.5x EV/FCF, and 0.17x sales. Down 78% this year. This is the crazy one. Shutterstock sells stock photos, footage and music to marketers, and AI image generators are eating that business. Revenue is down 11% to $901M. The Getty merger died in July after the UK regulator demanded a sale of Shutterstock's editorial business and Getty walked away. Getty then filed Chapter 11 on Oct 21, and Shutterstock suspended its dividend to pay down debt. Then on Oct 28 founder Jon Oringer came back as CEO and Chairman. He owns ~30%, and his stake is down ~80% this year. X is split: one guy called him checked out since 2020 and "an even worse COB," another called it the start of a serious shake-up. Either way, the founder who owns almost a third of the company now has every reason to fix it or sell it. Value Line still rates Financial Strength B. You're paying 3.5x free cash flow for a melting ice cube, so the question is how fast it melts. If FCF falls 20% a year it still roughly pays back the whole EV in about five years. Q3 is Nov 5. Size it like a lottery ticket. Not investment advice. Do your own work.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$TBBK: $46.75, $1.91B mkt cap, 8.2x trailing earnings and ~6.6x the new 2027 guide ($7.00-7.20), a 36% ROE, and 11% fewer shares than a year ago. $200M of buybacks this year, about 10% of the market cap. The Bancorp is the bank behind a lot of the fintech cards in your wallet. Fintechs bring the customers and Bancorp holds the deposits, which cost it almost nothing. Q3 EPS was $1.53, up 30%, fintech fees grew 19%, and payment volume grew 23% to $54B. The stock still fell 7.5% Friday because they cut the 2027 target from $8.10-8.30 to $7.00-7.20. In September Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank, its other partner bank, and the market read that as Chime eventually leaving. The bears have been loud and sometimes right. A VIC short in Dec 2023 at $38.93 called the earnings unsustainable and the accounting aggressive. On X, one guy called the guide-down "easy to call" before it happened, and others flagged the small business lending exit, layoffs, and a lending head leaving with a $2.5M package. But since that short the share count has gone from 54M to 41M, and the stock is higher. Even on the reset numbers you're paying ~6.6x 2027 and ~5.8x their preliminary 2028, and they plan to buy back ~100% of net income from 2027 on. Value Line cut it to Technical 5 on Friday, so nobody wants it. The whole question is how much Chime volume leaves. Management calls the new 2027 number a baseline, so watch whether it holds.

Investor Letters

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OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
FBRT · long

Franklin Bsp Realty Trust In

Franklin BSP Realty Trust, a commercial mortgage REIT, is presented as a long at $8.20 per share and a $757 million market capitalization.

FBRT $940M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Portfolio Update November 2025

Portfolio gained 0.6% in November and 22.9% in 2025, adding Floor & Decor and Copart while exiting West Pharmaceutical, Kraft Heinz, Novo…

FND $5.4B
D Invests

National Beverage Update

National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.

FIZZ $3.3B
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 3 clicks

FrontView REIT Investment Update

FrontView REIT remains discounted to estimated NAV after a 25% gain, while 19 asset sales at 6.8% cap rates and 98% occupancy support…

FVR $457M
Real Assets, Real Value

[$MNDY] Monday.com

Monday.com combines work management, CRM, Dev and Service on a flexible core platform, with 90% gross margins and AI disruption risk…

MNDY $3.9B
Lewistown Capital

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $653M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

Tis The (Earnings) Season

Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…

CUBI $2.9B
Cluseau Research 3 clicks

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