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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Virtus Investment Partners ($VRTS) is a multi-boutique asset manager with $152 billion of AUM. The stock has fallen about 20% since August as quality-style equity strategies suffered $14.1 billion of year-to-date outflows. At $132.29, VRTS trades at about 6x annualized adjusted EPS of $5.54 with a ~7% dividend yield, and net debt is just 0.9x EBITDA. The less obvious fact: Virtus’s average fee rate rose to 43.1bps from 41.3bps a year ago despite outflows. Lower-fee equity assets are leaving, while higher-fee alternatives ($19.7 billion of AUM) and ETFs are growing, including the 56% stake in private-credit manager Keystone, acquired in March. One caveat from the footnotes: the noncontrolling interest liability jumped to $152.5 million, largely Keystone, which signals a future obligation to buy the remaining equity. Buybacks have shrunk the share count to 6.6 million.
@calvinblissett 5 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Alexander’s ($ALX) is a Vornado-managed REIT whose crown jewel is 731 Lexington Avenue, where Bloomberg leases the entire office condominium through 2040. The stock trades below asset value because of tenant concentration and a gap in Bloomberg cash rent: in March, Bloomberg agreed to swap $56.8 million of its unused tenant-improvement allowance for free rent from April through December 2026. At $246.50, ALX yields over 7% on its regular $18 dividend and trades at a meaningful discount to independent net asset value estimates in the mid-$300s, with cash approaching $100 per share after the Rego Park I sale. The free-rent period is less damaging than it looks: the abatement is funded from a lender reserve that covers debt service, and full rent resumes in December. ALX sold the vacant Rego Park I to Northwell Health for $235.5 million in May, at roughly double some prior estimates of its value, booking a ~$148 million gain. The sale generated about $97 million of taxable gain in 2026, which REIT distribution rules likely force out as a special dividend.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

PetMed Express ($PETS) is an online pet pharmacy that has collapsed under Chewy and Amazon competition: FY2026 sales fell 21% to $179 million, with a $57 million net loss including a $26.7 million goodwill write-down. At $1.38, the stock trades at about one-third of the $4.00–4.25 per share unsolicited bids the board rejected in December 2025. With $21 million of cash, no debt and about 21 million shares, cash covers most of the ~$29 million market cap, leaving an enterprise value under $10 million, or less than 0.1x sales. The stabilization is tentative but visible: Q4 sales grew sequentially for the first time since FY2024 as AutoShip sign-ups improved, management is cutting $6.1 million of vendor costs, and new white-label pharmacy deals such as Rural King use excess fulfillment capacity. The risk is time: operating cash burn was $28 million last year, so the turnaround must show up within about four quarters. The board says it remains open to future offers.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

"I don't know of any other system that's as good… The snapshot it presents is an enormously efficient way for us to garner information about various businesses… I have yet to see a better way, including fooling around on the internet, that gives me the information as quickly." -Warren E Buffett on Value Line. I will do deep dives on the 2 opportunities you guys are most interested in. I think $GAMI, $ALX and $TREE (due to the narrative) are the most itneresting.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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