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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

From X

@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

More 3PL Datapoints. $1519.HK $SE 1) External funding raised by 3PLs 2) Lower volumes are leading to negative spiral for delivery workers (who are paid per package). Fewer deliveries per worker = less $ per day = workers leaving for growing 3PLs (Shopee Express & J&T) = more supply / competition of delivery workers = cheaper per parcel costs for SPX & J&T (widening moat). And further erosion of network density for sub-scale 3PLs. https://t.co/n35vONTb7Y
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

It has to consolidate at some point, and already is this year. It's relatively easier to build vs ice cars (esp in China with robust supplier ecosystem). But hard to scale, differentiate, and distribute your products. Requires billions in funding. Btw, you see $LI making a bigger push overseas this year, because they're about to launch BEV in China. So these hybrid models are going abroad to countries with less developed charging networks, where hybrids are more practical. It's a way to keep production lines busy, and might even make higher margins due to lower competition abroad + higher prices.
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

Li Auto is launching in the Philippines (and likely rest of SE Asia). Pictures from yesterday, at Manila's SM Mall of Asia. $LI. Management has talked publicly about Middle East and Central Asia as initial markets, but don't think they've mentioned SE Asia before... According to the sales associate, their first store in BGC is opening end of April, with 3 more locations in following months. Seems the $LI overseas expansion is happening much faster than investors anticipate... L7 priced at 4-4.5M PHP, and L9 at 5-5.5M PHP (+50% more expensive than in China).

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $33B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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