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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $400M of ARR that Boost Run $BRUN is targeting by December 31 is already signed? Five of its seven contracts with disclosed terms can count toward the $400M target, since the July order and Cohere, $160.7M/year combined, don’t start until 2027. If Thinking Machines Lab’s GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the target, leaving $99.4M for contracts without disclosed terms. For comparison, the Q2 deck’s deployment schedule had $0.4B of the then-$1.9B of TCV in production by the end of Q2, with all of it live by Q1 2027. From there, the deck shows another $0.4B of TCV going into production in Q3 and another $0.4B in Q4, a straight line to $1.2B by year-end that management calls consistent with the $400M+ ARR target. The deck’s footnote says the Q3 figure is a management estimate “interpolated from disclosed metrics,” so the actual climb will likely be lumpier, with the June order alone starting November 30. Cohere’s racks start in Q2 2027, right after the deck’s schedule ends, so even without a new contract, $BRUN has signed deployments lined up through mid-2027. $BRUN’s last ARR figure was $145M as of June 30, from the Q2 call, so the Q3 report (expected in mid-November) will be the first check on H2 2026. A straight-line climb from $145M (as of June 30) to $400M by December 31 would mean $136.3M of H2 2026 revenue, in line with the $127.9-137.9M needed to hit the $170-180M of 2026 revenue its October 8 prospectus amendment still estimates. By quarter, that climb works out to $52.2M of revenue in Q3 and $84.1M in Q4, up from $31.1M in Q2. In other words, the year-end target is mostly contracted, and the risk is getting the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31.
@convequity 6 clicks

Convequity on X

We sold TSMC ($TSM) earlier this year and are staying out, despite strong demand for its leading-edge chips. Our view is that investors may be too confident that leadership in shrinking transistors will keep earning the same share of industry profits as more performance gains come from stacking circuits, connecting chips and integrating optics. Logic folding could also make older manufacturing processes more competitive, which would weaken the pricing power that TSMC's leading-edge investments depend on. In 2009 TSMC's leadership initially rejected advanced packaging as low-margin work before being persuaded otherwise. Together with today's cautious approach to expanding capacity, we read that as a deeply risk-averse culture. That discipline protects returns. It can also leave TSMC slow to back technologies that challenge its existing business, and by the time their value is clear, other suppliers may have secured the key customer relationships.

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SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks
SAP · long

Sap Se

SAP shares are down 45% since February 2025 as AI disruption fears create a long thesis on its risk-reward.

SAP $271B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

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