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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

The Information reports that Anthropic has an unannounced multiyear cloud contract with $IREN. Our view is that it is most likely a contract IREN has already announced and already counts. On 27 August, in its FY26 results, IREN said it had signed a new multiyear AI cloud contract with an unnamed "leading frontier AI lab". In the same release it put contracted annualised run-rate revenue (ARR) for its 2026 capacity at $4bn, against $1bn of ARR operating on 26 August, and said its 2026 capacity was largely sold out. The Information gives no size or term, and neither IREN nor Anthropic has confirmed the deal. If Anthropic is the August lab, the report names a customer but adds nothing to the $4bn. It would only be new revenue if IREN raised that figure, and IREN has not said it will.
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$SPHR Update on my old friend Sphere. The recent sell off seems to be directly related to some sell-side rerating of the stock based on "soft data". I find that kind of interesting because the data has been soft for many months (see daily ticket sales chart below), and among investors that I talk to, this isn't a "surprise". (Realistically that's why the stock traded down from $170 to $130). So this "surprise, the data is weak, stock rerates down 25%" is interesting to me, but also reminds me: it's always extremely hard to figure out what the market has or hasn't "priced in". The issue with the "soft data" is that my (and many) original projections was that WoZ would trough at around 1.4-1.6m/day of sales in 2027. By the summer we observed levels of ~1.2m so that likely wasn't going to happen. Towards the end of the year, the data has inflected upwards, we're down YoY (expected, given less hype than the launch a year ago). Some of this is likely due to LV weakness in general, but I think that's a relatively small fraction of the story. Personally, I find this data interesting because A) I think it's largely meaningless to value the company B) I think the market overreacts to it I think the Sphere business is humming along extremely nicely. The concert business is consistently improving (higher numbers, better acts, more utilization). The ads and bookings businesses are healthy/growing, there are 2 (and probably more unannounced) additional Spheres working through production. What WOZ did was prove that a "hit film" could generate enormous interest/revenues/visitors to the Sphere. Whether it "levels off" at $1m/day, or $1.2m/day or $1.4m/day, doesn't matter that much because the longer term model is to consistently launch NEW films launch and generate $1.5-$2.5m/day. And they have somewhere between 2-3 new films coming out next year, and probably another 2-3 films in 2028. AI is cutting their speed (and cost) of making films dramatically. Overall I'm a buyer at these $100-$120 price levels (We're long via some short Nov $120P's that are currently in the money). Given recent price action, it's hard to say how the market reacts to the November earnings release, but I think the earnings picture has stabilized from here and the stock is setup for good fundamental catalysts driving earnings growth in 2027.
@SouthernValue95 10 clicks

SouthernValue on X

$AMZN paid <$400M for Annapurna … crazy how easy it is to spend money these days. Interesting acquisition, though. Decart has a world model and a video model, but the core piece AMZN is interested in is its “DOS” Decart Optimization Stack which helps AI models to train or inference over any chip technology, including already working with Trainium. This is a piece of technology AMZN wouldn’t want acquired by $NVDA. Makes a lot of sense within AMZN as a way to help customers use NVDA AMD CRBS TRN at optimal performance.

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SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks
SAP · long

Sap Se

SAP shares are down 45% since February 2025 as AI disruption fears create a long thesis on its risk-reward.

SAP $271B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

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