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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$NKTR Lots of funky action in this name the past few days, some specific to the ongoing court case and some from bio as a whole. Let's unpack it. The jury note, paraphrased as "Is there a difference between breach + $1 and no breach + $0?", spooked the market and sent the stock down sharply. Two sides to this. First, the note is informative, but only a little. It tells us at least one juror sees the $0/$1 outcome as part of their possible resolution space. Where I think the market (or at least fintwit) got it wrong is treating the note as the voice of the entire jury. It could reflect the whole panel, or it could be a single juror's question. It doesn't even tell us direction: it could come from a juror looking for a way to find breach despite doubting the damages case. The price action implied the whole jury is now choosing between $0 and $1, which I think is a big overread. Second, this is NKTR: a retail/fintwit-heavy, relatively illiquid SMID-cap biotech that moves 5% on a random Tuesday with no news. A 10% move on this headline looks extreme, but near-term price action here mostly reflects value-agnostic traders playing local news and liquidity flow, not a considered repricing of long-term value. The bigger picture: the case is largely a distraction from the real value, which is Rezpeg. I'm not a biotech expert, but the sell side and most biotech specialists I respect see it as a likely viable commercial product that's underpriced here. If anything, the case matters mainly as an overhang. An uncertain $0-to-$1B+ claim is hard for any acquirer or partner to price, so resolution in almost any direction clears the path for corporate action. The distraction is creating the opportunity. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in NKTR. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.
@junkbondinvest 2 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

The typical argument for data center project debt is that the tenant is IG and therefore unlikely to default. That may be true...if the project is actually finished. $ORCL JUST sent a force majeure notice to Stargate campus, trying to defer payments when/if the buildout gets delayed. This is the $18bn construction loan that FT reported is offered at ~89-91. Remember, construction risk doesn't care if your tenant is IG. You gotta build the thing on time.
@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

Hey Drew I know you cover mainly big names which makes sense in terms of reach. I watch your videos even when I know I’m not going to buy the stock because the quality is that good. I think in terms of bigger names with potential value $SLM is very interesting and would be a good set up for you. $KNSL is another that also has a pretty good retail following. $FISV is the biggest size potential value I’ve found. Also a $FICO update with thoughts would be orgasmic
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

To me that is not true and one of the common misconceptions on $BMBL, like someone insightfully mentioned word of mouth is a powerful thing. Especially in today’s day and age. Here is a real world scuttle butt example: I was talking to a girl about here boyfriend and how they met and how she meets guys. She said hinge, instagram tinder. She said hinge for dating, tinder for hook ups. If she mentions Bumble for dating that is a huge endorsement and whoever hears it is virtually certain to try Bumbls. If $BMBL is continuously successful at providing quality matches (Whitney’s goal) it will gain new users->leading to potentially more subscribers->leading to potentially more lost subscribers due to success->who will spread the word and create more inflowing subscribers than out flowing. Word of mouth may be the most powerful advertising force

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SAP · long

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