Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap
Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.
Friday, October 30, 2026
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A Capital on X
Look at $FDXF. A month of underperformance based on “channel checks,” followed by a ~15% move and multiple analyst upgrades after a single session (catalyst day). https://t.co/X81f5cl6Eh https://t.co/FfwGWZlciQ
Barbarian Capital on X
Starbucks sales miss expectations, but its U.S. turnaround is gaining steam $SBUX https://t.co/kPufTMV5zS
Barbarian Capital on X
Reddit stock plunges 30% after weak outlook, heads for worst day ever $RDDT https://t.co/aemPgp56rc
Barbarian Capital on X
BP’s profits surge to new record on high fuel prices $BP https://t.co/bUl30Vb4Ti
SouthernValue on X
Meanwhile @OpenAI pulled IPO and can barely get its latest funding round off. $META and $GOOG will win consumer AI. https://t.co/eqJPtwTTwh
SouthernValue on X
What year will $MSFT take @OpenAI into receivership?
Barbarian Capital on X
CD&R pursues buyout of $40 bn card processor Global Payments $GPN https://t.co/Wil5Zf6xn7
Barbarian Capital on X
"higher sales and recent cost-savings efforts weren’t able to fully offset steeper-than-expected inflation." $NWL Newell Brands Swings to Loss Despite Higher Sales https://t.co/WPRdY3lzz3
Investor Letters
All letters- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $32BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 BP $125BLUV $21B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 CLVT $1.4BAAP $2.9B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BAMZN $2.9T
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 BOIVF $12BAVOL $8.1B
- Broyhill Asset Management third quarter 2026 CACI $15BGOOGL $3.4T
- Fairtree Asset Management Q3 2026 SSL $11B
- Alluvial Capital Management Third Quarter 2026 BSVN $553MGDOT $703M
SNY Earnings Review
Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
SK hynix: Despite Their Premium To The Korean Shares, The U.S. ADRs Are A Bargain
SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…
Adam Schadt 2 clicks
Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts
Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.
Amazon 3Q’26: Trillion Dollar Talks
Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Alphabet's Post-Earnings Selloff Is The Best Buying Opportunity In Years
Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.
Rick Orford 5 clicks
Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY
Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.
Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.
Verisk Analytics’ 40 petabytes of proprietary insurance data and regulatory infrastructure shield its underwriting business from generative…
Alphabet: Don’t Search for a Straight Line in Innovation
Alphabet’s Q3 2026 cloud growth stayed strong while Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, with higher AI capital spending driving negative…
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
Tango Therapeutics reported an 82% response rate and 88% nine-month PFS for vopimetostat plus RASONQUE in RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer,…
Terry Chrisomalis 2 clicks
PYPL · long Paypal Holdings INC
PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…
Apollo and what even is private credit?
Apollo’s Marc Rowan argues private-credit risk depends on underwriting, seniority, leverage and diversification, not whether a bank or fund…
Wix: More Pain (Ticker: WIX)
Wix cut 2026 bookings guidance by $50 million and revenue by $25 million after layoffs and weaker agency-partner demand, deepening scrutiny…
The ISA Doesn't Matter Where It Counts
X86 and Arm matter less than GPU interconnects in AI server CPUs, with NVLink-C2C and Infinity Fabric defining the highest-value…
Precision AI
Adobe’s licensed vector data, corporate workflow integration and compliance framework could give it an edge in precision AI as frontier…
The Great RPO Illusion: Microsoft, OpenAI, Nvidia, and the Neoclouds
OpenAI commitments can be counted as Microsoft RPO, Nvidia revenue and neocloud backlog, layering claims on the same underlying demand.
Intuit deep dive
Intuit’s investment case turns on whether AI strengthens or weakens QuickBooks and TurboTax moats across SMB accounting, payroll, payments…
Note on Fiserv CEO Change & Huntsman/Olin Merger
Fiserv fell nearly 10% after CEO Mike Lyons left for Truist, while Olin's stock-funded 0.5476-share offer values Huntsman below its prior…
Deep Dive: Netflix ($NFLX)
Netflix's 325 million memberships and advertising business, guided to $3 billion of 2026 revenue, underpin a case for mid-teens…
The Arithmetic: How a $9 Spanish-Language Broadcaster Becomes a $100 AdTech Stock
Entravision’s path from a $9 Spanish-language broadcaster to a $100 adtech stock rests on an adtech-driven valuation model.
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