Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap
Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.
Friday, October 30, 2026
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Look at $FDXF. A month of underperformance based on “channel checks,” followed by a ~15% move and multiple analyst upgrades after a single session (catalyst day). https://t.co/X81f5cl6Eh https://t.co/FfwGWZlciQ
Barbarian Capital on X
Starbucks sales miss expectations, but its U.S. turnaround is gaining steam $SBUX https://t.co/kPufTMV5zS
Barbarian Capital on X
Reddit stock plunges 30% after weak outlook, heads for worst day ever $RDDT https://t.co/aemPgp56rc
Barbarian Capital on X
BP’s profits surge to new record on high fuel prices $BP https://t.co/bUl30Vb4Ti
SouthernValue on X
Meanwhile @OpenAI pulled IPO and can barely get its latest funding round off. $META and $GOOG will win consumer AI. https://t.co/eqJPtwTTwh
SouthernValue on X
What year will $MSFT take @OpenAI into receivership?
Barbarian Capital on X
CD&R pursues buyout of $40 bn card processor Global Payments $GPN https://t.co/Wil5Zf6xn7
Barbarian Capital on X
"higher sales and recent cost-savings efforts weren’t able to fully offset steeper-than-expected inflation." $NWL Newell Brands Swings to Loss Despite Higher Sales https://t.co/WPRdY3lzz3
Investor Letters
All letters- Artisan Partners Q3 2026 HDLMY $32BIQV $43B
- Sound Shore Management third quarter of 2026 BP $125BLUV $21B
- Curreen Capital July–September 2026 AAP $2.9BCUUCF $5.3B
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2026 OCTV $5.7BAMZN $2.9T
- East 72 Period to 30 September 2026 BOIVF $12BAVOL $8.1B
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Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
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Bloom: Chinese Scandium Supply Route Restarts
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Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…
TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)
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Alphabet's Post-Earnings Selloff Is The Best Buying Opportunity In Years
Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.
Rick Orford 5 clicks
Earnings Review: $AMZN and $LLY
Amazon’s AWS revenue grew 39% to $46B as capex drove negative FCF; Lilly raised 2026 guidance to $91-92B on GLP-1 volume growth.
Wall Street Erased $16 Billion From a Legal Monopoly Over an AI Myth.
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Alphabet: Don’t Search for a Straight Line in Innovation
Alphabet’s Q3 2026 cloud growth stayed strong while Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, with higher AI capital spending driving negative…
Tango: Upgrading 'Buy' Based On ESMO 2026 Vopimetostat PDAC Data And Pathway Advancement Clarity
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CDLR · long Cadeler A/S
Cadeler (CDLR) is the world’s largest pure-play owner-operator of wind turbine installation vessels, listed in Oslo and on the NYSE.
Adobe Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)
Adobe trades at 14x free cash flow after a 60% decline despite growth, with AI, its business-model transition and creative-software…
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Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…
FDA vs. HIMS: Why the Oral “Wegovy Copy” Crackdown Changes the GLP-1 Game
FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’s $49 compounded oral Wegovy copy reshapes GLP-1 competition after Novo Nordisk forecast 2026 sales and profit…
Evolution: 4Q25 Business Update
Evolution's fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% as Asia cyber disruption and European channelization outweighed U.S.
Adobe Inc (ADBE): slowly, then all at once
Adobe’s sub-20x forward GAAP P/E reflects AI disruption fears, with the investment case hinging on whether Digital Media’s creative…
2026: Radio silence, software setbacks and more from me in 2026
RELX and Sage have fallen 46% and 35% as markets label them AI losers, creating potential value opportunities alongside risks of genuine…
My Biggest Position: A Monopoly Priced for Failure
A former value-investor darling, down 50%, pairs a monopoly with a recurring-revenue razor-and-blade business; debt paydown, margin…
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Snapchat Family Center
Kalshi’s 87% odds of “Family Center” on Snap’s earnings call far exceed its 2.9% historical mention rate and a 15–20% street-adjusted…
CrowdStrike: A Glass DeathStar during SaaSmageddon | Short Thesis
CrowdStrike faces a renewal cliff after its July 2024 outage, with Microsoft Defender bundling, litigation, SEC and DOJ scrutiny, and a…
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