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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO: - "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." - "We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance." Back in July, $NVDA supply commitments rocketed from $119B -> $279B which was "primarily related to the procurement of memory", with ~$175B of commitments for 2028-29... $MU also said that >75% of FY27 output is already committed + "a majority of discussions with our customers today are already around 2028." So as a reminder....ultra long-term demand visibility in the context of the memory market. Samsung’s Q3 prelim last week was 107.4T Won O.P. on 195T Won revenue: - So that's ~55% margins company-wide. - Micron did 87% GM in their most recent quarter - $SNDK 84.6% GM. All accelerating/stabilizing margins as of their most recent fiscal Q's. Mass production from new capacity (from Micron, Samsung and SKHY) is also not expected to come online for quite some time. In other words, the shortage will intensify next year at least. Then long-term contracts solidify long-term earnings further via price floors + committed volumes: - $MU with 26 SCAs worth >35% of revenue through to 2030 with some now running into 2031. - $MU CFO: "even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins." - $SKHY has ~10 LTAs of ~5 yrs w/ pricing structures "designed to respond to price fluctuations." - Sammy (as of recent reporting) holds ~70% of memory capacity under LTAs until 2031 with $MSFT, $NVDA and $GOOGL, with ~25% of contract value prepaid. - $SNDK also has their "New Business Model" agreements with 8 customers that lock in ~66% of fy28. Then on buybacks, $MU will step up returns from December - "over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash." Just crazy how much cash these companies are bathing in rn. Obviously there are risks, mainly with positioning and sentiment towards the AI trade currently - thanks to macro/ARR fears/pacing talks/other stuff I'm probably forgetting rn. China is ofc another risk with CXMT but I don't see how they'll be a massive problem for HBM / US hyperscaler RDIMM where they'll continue to face US restrictions + massive qualification walls imo. But ultimately, memory fundamentals are in-tact and very strong. Stronger than Q1.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Wow - @ryancohen was right. These are not the actions of a value investor. This is hardcore trading. Is there any recommendation @michaeljburry has actually held for longer than a month (or that has actually increased in value) since this newsletter has started??? $GME would have counted in both categories if he had actually held.... Just brutal performance since inception. Maybe this is why he has refused to publicly release his funds performance? I think Burry is the only "big name" investor where the public has no clue what the actual performance of the fund was since inception. Crazy lack of transparency.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$AVGO's Hock Tan is right that capital is now the constraint on AI, and that is healthy. The $60bn banks are placing for Anthropic's lease of $GOOGL's TPUs shows how it gets eased: by moving risk, not reducing it. We read his two remarks as cause and effect: tokens are not yet earning a return, so capital is expensive. That brake stops a buildout outrunning its returns. The $42bn senior slice leans on Broadcom's A-minus credit through a partial guarantee of the chips' residual value. The rest is expected to wait for Anthropic's IPO. The brake works where Broadcom's credit stops. On the guaranteed slice the risk has moved, not shrunk: out of a loan spread lenders would price, into a chip deal the seller priced, onto a balance sheet already long the same cycle, where it is too small to move the shares. Google sits on the same outcome three times: Anthropic shareholder, TPU lessor, Broadcom's customer for those chips. The IPO junior lenders are waiting for also puts a public price on Google's stake, and Broadcom's guarantee is safest if it goes well. Spreading risk only reduces it when the holders are diversified against it. None here are. Each piece is ordinary. The total is capital arriving ahead of proven returns, and two of the market's largest companies carrying more of one lab's downside than their labels suggest.

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SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.6T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks
SAP · long

Sap Se

SAP shares are down 45% since February 2025 as AI disruption fears create a long thesis on its risk-reward.

SAP $271B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

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