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Friday, October 30, 2026

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CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins drove 46% of segment earnings.

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

From X

@david_katunaric 1 click

Mikro Kap David on X

Q3 absolutely sucked, and my performance currently stands at 37.8% YTD versus 65.8% at the end of Q2, marking the worst drawdown from a high since I started sharing my buy/sell decisions on Substack. Apparently, the Market Gods decided this is what you get for calling your last portfolio update “Half-time Lead.” …I’m just glad I didn’t use a Buffett quote. That might’ve finished me off. While I barely felt the pre-2024 election volatility, the spring 2025 tariff scare, or the start of the Iran war in 2026, Q3 broke that pattern. $EVC, my largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs and made sure I felt this one. The portfolio’s relative resilience, something I’d come to appreciate, disappeared with it. Of course, I have plenty to say about Entravision, but I’ll save the fundamental developments for later in the article. Q3 was a season of portfolio pruning (wow, I never thought I’d use that phrase). I exited two winners, realized one loss, added to a large position, saw a rare billion-dollar-plus company find its way into my portfolio, and ended the quarter with 6% in cash versus 0% at the end of Q2. I ended Q3 with 11 holdings, with the top three accounting for 53% of capital and the top five for 70%. Portfolio beta also came down from 0.95 at the end of Q2 to 0.80 at quarter end. That is still elevated relative to the portfolio’s historical level, largely because my biggest position carries a beta of 1.68, while every other holding sits below 1. I’ll save the longer performance review for year end, when we can hopefully put what I still consider a satisfactory 2026 into proper perspective. For now, I think it’s better to focus on what actually matters for a concentrated stock picker like me: what has changed fundamentally, how those developments affect the risk/reward, and where my conviction stands today. As usual, at the link below I went through the portfolio from the smallest position to the largest.
@convequity

Convequity on X

A bit of surpsied to see OpenAI Dot's VM spec is so low: CPU: 9 visible logical CPUs; host reports AMD EPYC 9V74 at ~2.6 GHz RAM: 9.7 GiB total, ~8.7 GiB available; no swap Storage: 32 GiB workspace filesystem, ~30 GiB free Also uses Cloudflare $NET network as egress like Grok Bot does but the computer spec is so much lower than Grok Bot. Maybe OpenAI is just more resource constrained vs. SpaceX given a much bigger user base. The demand for traditional compute, networking and storage will grow crazy as more people start to adopt this cloud agent architecture.

Investor Letters

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks
SAP · long

Sap Se

SAP shares are down 45% since February 2025 as AI disruption fears create a long thesis on its risk-reward.

SAP $271B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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