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Friday, October 30, 2026

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From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Haven't posted $AIRS thoughts since the Q2 miss. But after speaking to management and refreshing on the thesis here's an update: 1. The opportunity for post GLP1 procedures remains as large as ever. When a new "thing" starts trending, a business such as theirs with surgeons, devices, and rigid medical process can't just turn on a dime to capture the growing opportunity in a few months. It takes a little time and the management team is measured, disciplined, and thoughtful about the best way to pivot. Why? Because this is a health care setting where you don't just throw stuff at the wall. But... 2. ...Measurable evidence of the new are opportunities (skin removal, tightening etc) gaining momentum is emerging: Skin excisions grew 100% from Q4 and have increased within the mix going from Q4 4.3%, Q1 4.9% to Q2 5.9%. That's real evidence of progress on addressing a massive post GlP1 demand wave. 3. The announced partnership with Alloclae might be a GAME CHANGER as the fat transfer procedure is hitting the zeitgeist as we speak. Alix Earle has 14mn social media followers and the rumor mill consensus is that she just had the procedure done. Sure looks like it to me. 4. I was expecting them to announce a debt refi that didn't come. Disappointing, yes. But, I still believe it is coming and management said so too: "We recently signed an amendment exceeding the maturity of the facility to November 2027. At the same time, we continue to make progress refinancing. The continued stability in our business has allowed us to receive multiple-term sheets that we believe are aligned with our long-term interest and the maturity extension gives us additional time to achieve the right transaction." 5. Mgmt keeps talking about restarting store growth given low saturation and lack of presence in many notable markets such as Long Island, Tampa, etc. You don't wave new store growth in front of the market unless you think you are going to refi the debt and have some stuff cooking to reignite SSS. Maybe more promotional management teams would, but having gotten to know this team well, I am confident that they are not inclined to promote things that they don't have high confidence in. When Yogi became CEO he literally told me no plans to go on the road and meet with investors because they need stability first. Now its a total 180 on that point. 6. There's so much operating leverage here. If the new GLP1 related opportunities continue to gain momentum, and if they add 3 stores to the 31 store base, then we grow ebitda 41% next year. Today we are trading at just 4.9x past peak adj ebitda. In five years, why can't they expand to 40 stores? Based on the unit economics per store, they would then be in position to exceed prior peak earnings. This was a mismanaged business that got hurt by the early rapid onset of GLP1, but we now know that the other side of that demand wave comes with a whole new set of demand for aesthetic work. The opportunity is absolutely massive. And if this current team doesn't get it done, then given the long term filers in the name (PE, activists), I suspect that new owners would be happy to enter the picture. Meanwhile, the short interest remains high and the top five holders aren't going anywhere. *This is not advice, just our opinion. We are long AIRS but that can change at anytime.
@orrdavid

David Orr on X

$LULU's old brand was exclusive, high quality clothes. Curated for only the best thing. Back in 2015. Over time, they expanded a ton and from too-high of volume alone, it would have been impossible to keep quality high. Recently this spun out of control and quality is downright terrible. How can this problem possibly be fixed? Don't they use a zillion different suppliers? I don't think there are enough good ones to replace them, even if someone executed very well. On top of quality problems, they ruined the brand image with DEI garbage. I don't see how that is repairable, at least not for many years. And finally, the whole athleisure category is stale. Which is $LULU's entire brand. Point being, if I was management, I would see no path to turning this ship around within 5 years. And the remaining company at the end would be much smaller than it is today. And that'd be the good outcome, with any of the above three points being a failure mode anyway.

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